Research On Risk Contagion Mechanism Of SMES Financing Guarantee Business

With the construction and improvement of the financing guarantee system,many guarantee institutions,banks,SMEs and other main businesses are increasingly closely related.However,affected by the economic downturn and other factors,problems such as lax risk control,unreasonable risk sharing and irregular operation coexist,and business risks are gradually exposed.Risk contagion events occur frequently in the process of guarantee business development,and risk fluctuations will quickly spread among financing guarantee business entities,leading to the formation of industrial and regional risks.Based on this,through in-depth analysis of the risk and contagion status of financing guarantee business,the risk contagion model of financing guarantee business is constructed,the risk contagion mechanism is explored,and relevant risk prevention and control countermeasures are proposed.Specific research contents are as follows:First,this paper introduces the basic theories of quasi-public goods,information asymmetry and risk contagion,and defines the basic connotations of SMEs,financing guarantee business and financing guarantee business risks.Then,we analyze the development and risk status of the financing guarantee industry with the development report of the financing guarantee industry,and analyze the major risk contagion events in recent years,and conclude that the risk contagion of China’s financing guarantee business has problems such as large default risk of SMEs,aggressive expansion of guarantee business,high compensation amount and low recovery efficiency of guarantee institutions,and unsound internal management mechanism of guarantee institutions,etc.The analysis finds that the weak risk prevention and control ability of the participants in the financing guarantee business and the imperfect external environment are the important reasons for the frequent occurrence of risks in the guarantee business,laying a realistic foundation for the study of the risk contagion mechanism below.Second,the risk contagion mechanism of financing guarantee business is studied.Based on the analysis of the realistic situation of risk contagion in the financing guarantee business of small and micro enterprises,the SEIR risk contagion model is constructed.Analyze the balance point and stability of the model,find the threshold of risk infection,and use Matlab software to simulate key factors such as the conversion rate of latent enterprises,the transfer rate of infected enterprises,the risk infection rate,the node subject degree value and the removal rate of immune enterprises.First,when individual enterprises in the financing guarantee business network have risks,risk contagion will not necessarily occur in the network.When the effective risk contagion rate in the network reaches or exceeds the risk threshold,the risk will form contagion effect in the network.Secondly,the density of individual latent firms changes in the same direction as the conversion rate of latent firms,the removal rate of infected firms and the degree of enterprise of guaranteed network nodes,but only in the initial stage of infection and the risk infection rate.The density of infected enterprises changed in the opposite direction with the conversion rate of latent enterprises and the removal rate of infected enterprises,and in the same direction with the risk infection rate,the degree of enterprise of guarantee network node and the removal rate of immune enterprises.The density of immune individuals changed in the same direction as the enterprise degree of the guarantee network node and the removal rate of infected enterprises,and in the opposite direction as the removal rate of immune enterprises and the conversion rate of latent enterprises.Finally,according to the research conclusions,the ideas for effective risk prevention and control of financing guarantee business are clarified,and countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for risk prevention and control of financing guarantee business: first,risk infection prevention and control strategy of nodal enterprises in financing guarantee business,including three measures to improve the risk identification ability of nodal enterprises,improve the risk early warning mechanism of nodal enterprises,and enhance the risk control ability of important enterprises;The second is the prevention and control strategy of risk infection of financing guarantee business network,including three measures:standardize the information disclosure mechanism,optimize the selection of partners and build the coordination mechanism of financing guarantee business network.Third,risk infection prevention and control strategies at the external environment level,including three measures: building an information sharing mechanism,improving the government rescue mechanism and optimizing the financing guarantee credit environment.