Research On Risk Evaluation Of Agricultural Credit Guarantee Institutions

The problems of "difficult,expensive and slow financing" generally exist in agriculture and rural areas.The first measure to solve this financing dilemma is to introduce a third party to provide credit enhancing services for agricultural business entities and leverage more financial resources to support agriculture and benefit agriculture.Since 2015,No.1 Document of the Central Committee has put forward strategic arrangements for the work of rural undertaking for consecutive years,and continuously promoted the beneficial nature of agricultural credit guarantee.The establishment of agricultural credit guarantee system and the development of agricultural credit guarantee institutions are the urgent needs to improve the financial ecological environment of agricultural development,promote agricultural industrialization,modernization and increase farmers’ income.However,due to the inherent weakness of the agricultural industry and the intermediary position of agricultural credit guarantee institutions,as well as the relatively late establishment of agricultural credit guarantee institutions and the lack of risk management experience,agricultural credit guarantee institutions are susceptible to the influence of internal and external factors in the operation process,and the types of risks are complex and diverse,making it difficult to accurately measure the risks.How to construct a scientific,reasonable and widely recognized risk evaluation system for agricultural credit guarantee institutions,and how to calculate the risk level of institutions need to be further studied.Based on this,this study uses the theory of information asymmetry,credit guarantee theory,risk transmission theory and risk management theory to establish the theoretical framework of risk assessment for agricultural credit guarantee institutions.The risk evaluation index system of agricultural credit guarantee institutions is constructed by using empirical analysis method,the index weight is calculated,and the risk grade and safety factor of institutions are measured.Jiangsu DL,which has the best evaluation results,is selected to sum up its outstanding risk management experience,so as to evaluate and control the risks of agricultural credit guarantee institutions.To promote the steady and sustainable operation of institutions,to achieve the goal of financial support for agriculture to provide research methods and policy reference.The main research contents of this paper are as follows:(1)Analyzes the current business development status of agricultural credit guarantee institutions and three major risk sharing modes: "silver shoulder mode","government-bank shoulder mode" and "bank-enterprise shoulder mode".This paper summarizes and analyzes the types and status quo of internal and external risks of agricultural credit guarantee institutions,explores the status quo of risk evaluation and problems existing in institutional risk management of agricultural credit guarantee institutions.(2)Construct the risk evaluation index system of agricultural credit guarantee institutions,use the sample data of 34 agricultural credit guarantee institutions,calculate the comprehensive weight of each index and sort it by AHP-entropy weight method;(3)Use fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to calculate the risk level and safety factor of the mechanism.By comparing the estimated results from 2020 to 2021,Jiangsu DL,which has the best performance in risk evaluation results,is selected to analyze its representative risk management experience.According to the previous research content,this paper draws the following conclusions:(1)The secondary indexes that have a great impact on institutional risk are respectively the guarantee compensation rate,the completeness of post-guarantee tracking management,the completeness of due diligence before guarantee,the overdue rate,the perfection of rural credit system,the risk sharing ratio of guarantee company,the amplification ratio of guarantee,the quality of employees,the degree of risk responsibility implementation,and the change rate of guarantee rate.(2)Most of the 34 agricultural credit guarantee institutions were in low risk grade and general risk grade,accounting for 64.71% and 20.59% respectively.In 2021,the average of the overall safety coefficient of institutions was 72.46,and the safety coefficient of policy-based institutions was greater than that of commercial institutions.There is a small difference between Jiangsu Province and Shanxi Province in the mean safety coefficient of the mechanism,and the safety coefficient of Shaanxi Province is lower than that of Jiangsu Province and Shanxi Province.In the dynamic comparison of the evaluation results of institutional risk grade and safety coefficient from 2020 to 2021,it is found that the safety coefficient of 22 institutions has been improved,with different increases,and Jiangsu DL has the best performance in this evaluation.Based on the research conclusions,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to improve the risk management of agricultural credit guarantee institutions,which are as follows:(1)Establish a scientific and reasonable risk assessment system,and pay attention to key risk factors;(2)Optimize risk assessment methods and models to accurately quantify institutional risks;(3)Strengthen the construction of rural credit system and build information data platform;(4)Strengthen digital risk control technology and improve risk early warning mechanism;(5)Strengthen personnel’s awareness of risk control and effectively prevent operational risks;(6)Innovate the cooperation mechanism of Yindan and reasonably control the risk sharing ratio.