Risk Assessment And Prevention Measures For Credit Guarantee Project

In recent years, to solve financing problems, countries have strongly advocated the development of credit guarantee system and introduced a series of policies to stimulate guarantee business, coupled with the low entry threshold of the guarantee company,the number of the guarantee company is increasing. The rapid development of the credit guarantee industry plays a promote role to alleviate the problem of financing, but as a business with risk, too rapid may evoke more risks. If the risk cannot be identificated and assessed accurately and with no effective prevention and control policy, the quality of the guarantee project and the development of the entire guarantee industry will be affected. However, there are lots of problems on credit guarantee project risk assessment and prevention now, such as the uncertainty of the risk factors, no uniform of the risk index system and the lack of qualitative and quantitative analysis means of risk factors. Therefore, the identification and assessment of credit guarantee project risk factor is of great theoretical significance and application value.This paper is based on project investment risk theory and the successful use of Delphi method and AHP, researching the system of a credit guarantee project risk identification and assessment. First of all, in view of the development credit guarantee industry, I analyze the credit guarantee project risk assessment of the situation and propose the problem of credit guarantee project risk. Secondly, on the basis of analyzing quality risk of credit guarantee project operators, financial risks, market risks, business risks, associated risks, policy risks and historical factors, I identified the key risk factors with Delphi method, and establish a fuzzy comprehensive assessment model of credit guarantee project risk and provide assessment methods of general credit guarantee project risk assessment. Finally, I make an empirical analysis of Huacheng gas station guarantee item with the risk assessment model, and propose prevention measures of credit guarantee project on the basis of that analysis. The characteristics of the paper are as follows:1.Exploring the financial guarantee project risk in view of quality risk managers, financial risk factors and so on, and making an identification and analysis by Delphi method; 2.Establishing a financial guarantee project risk evaluation system with Decisive indicator and Reference index by the way of experts scoring evaluation of the key risk factors of guarantee project;3.Establishing a comprehensive risk assessment model of financial guarantee project with fuzzy method,4. On the basis of the above analysis I propose guarantee project risks, prevention and control strategies.This paper not only provides the risk analysis and assessment of models for the guarantee institutions, but the effective risk prevention measures for the health development of the guarantee industry.