Research On Consumer’s Consumption Behavior Under The Ambiguous Information

With the unprecedented changes in a century and the impact of the global epidemic,the instability and uncertainty of the international economy becoming increasingly prominent,the Party Central Committee has made a comprehensive analysis of the current domestic and international situation,and proposed to accelerate the construction of a new development pattern to promote the high-quality development of China’s economy.The dual circulation pattern refers to the new development pattern with the domestic circulation as the main body and the domestic and international dual circulation promoting each other,especially pointing out that consumption should be regarded as the core point of domestic circulation.The 2021 Central Economic Work Conference clearly pointed out that China’s economic development is currently facing triple pressures such as demand contraction,supply shock,and weakening expectations;The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on April 29,2022 also clearly pointed out the complexity,severity and uncertainty of China’s economic development environment.Among them,boosting consumer confidence and prospering the consumer market is an important link in building a new development pattern and alleviating the triple pressure.However,affected by uncertain events such as the new crown pneumonia epidemic,the ambiguity of consumer goods market information has increased significantly,significantly affecting consumers’ willingness to spend,and even the phenomenon of "having money does not dare to spend".Therefore,actively exploring new paths and methods to drive consumption has become the focus of research from all walks of life,so it is necessary to study the consumption behavior of consumers under ambiguous information.From the perspective of commodity prices in the consumer market,this paper takes consumer consumption behavior as the main research object.First,suppose that consumers receive ambiguous information about the future price of the commodity and use it as a predicted price for the future price of the commodity;This paper introduces information accuracy to measure the ambiguity of commodity price information,and proposes a new expected consumption model with random income to study consumers’ expected consumption behavior.Based on the difference between the predicted price of goods and the future price,the accuracy interval of ambiguous information is obtained,and the maximum and minimum expected consumption model of consumers is constructed based on the difference between the predicted price of goods and the future price,and assuming that consumers are risk-averse and have the characteristics of secondary utility wealth preference.The stochastic control method is used to obtain the model closure solution and analyze the expected consumption behavior of consumers.The results show that under ambiguous information,consumer’s expected consumption behavior exists the inertia interval.the uncertainty degree of market is lower or the stability of commodity price is stronger,the inertia interval is smaller;the ambiguity degree of information is lower,the price effect is more obvious;the uncertainty of future random income has a stimulating effect on expected consumption behavior;compared with the international consumer market,the domestic consumer market has a smaller inertia interval.Second,take the time factor into account uncertainty in the consumer market.Suppose that the consumer receives ambiguous information about the actual price of the good and takes it as the expected price of the actual price of the goods;The time-varying ambiguity index of commodity price information is introduced to measure the expected price deviation rate,and the timevarying ambiguity index is obtained based on the expected price and the actual price of the commodity,and it is divided into time-varying ambiguity of "better than expected" and time-varying ambiguity of "worse than expected" according to the characteristics of the time-varying ambiguity index of commodity price information.Taking consumer consumption behavior as the explanatory variable,time-varying ambiguity of "better than expected" and time-varying ambiguity of "worse than expected" as the core explanatory variables,consumer price index and consumer confidence index as control variables,the econometric model was constructed and the consumption behavior of consumers was analyzed.The results show that the time-varying ambiguity of "better than expected" has an amplifying effect on consumer consumption behavior.The timevarying ambiguity of "worse than expected" has a restraining effect on consumer consumption behavior."Inferior to expected" price ambiguity has a restraining effect on consumer consumption behavior;Consumer price index is negatively correlated with consumer consumption behavior;The Consumer Confidence Index is positively correlated with consumer behavior.Finally,based on the results of this paper,a summary and analysis are carried out,and relevant policy enlightenment is given.The research not only provides a new analytical framework for the study of consumer consumption behavior,but also provides empirical evidence for the construction of a prosperous domestic consumer market.