The Impact Of Income Uncertainty And Consumption Uncertainty On The Consumption Of Rural Residents

Since reform and opening, Chinese economy is growing fast. The average economic growth rate reached 9.8%. and it is now the world’s second largest economy. But the economic growth still depends on investment and export. Consumer demand is woefully inadequate. Consumer research, can provide the basis for national policy of stimulating consumption. At the same time, it could enrich the related empirical studies.With the increase of income and consumption, the uncertainty of income and consumption also increases. Specifically, the migrant workers’ wage is not stable; the income from household business are affected by natural factors, etc; meanwhile, the rural social security system is not perfect. Therefore, this article studies the rural residents’consumption behavior from the income uncertainty and consumption uncertainty perspective.Contents of this paper consist of three parts:First, this paper studies the present situation of the consumption in recent years. In this paper, we analysis the causes of insufficient consumption from two aspects:the consumption level and consumption structure hierarchy.Second, we measured the income uncertainty and consumption uncertainty. And we deduced the consumption function.Third, we studied the influence of rural residents’ consumption from two aspects. In the first place, we calculated the uncertainty by adjusted deviation rate, and studied the influence to consumption.In the last place, we calculated the variable’s interval spur(income and consumption) and the Short-term bank lending rates, studied the influence to consumption.The structure of this paper:Chapter I is an introduction. It presents the target question and introduces the related information, including the background and meaning of the study, research contents and methods, advantages and disadvantages.Chapter II is an overview. It mainly summarize and review the progress and the least research results of consumption theory at home and abroad.Chapter III is the present condition analysis. This paper studied the present situation of the consumption, the income uncertainty and consumption uncertainty in recent years. At the same time, we measured the uncertainty.Chapter IV includes two aspects:the model inference and the estimation theory.Chapter V studied the influence of rural residents’consumption from the adjusted deviation rate perspective. The study found that the rural residents’ housing consumption will undercut other consumption. Resident consumption behavior has the habit effect. When the uncertainty variable value is positive, the uncertainty factors will increase consumption. On the other hand, it will reduce the consumption.Chapter VI studied the influence of rural residents’consumption from the combination forecast perspective. We found that resident consumption behavior has the habit effect. We used the combination forecast method, and found that after weighting, the influence of income, income uncertainty, rates on consumption is reduced and the influence of consumption uncertainty on consumption is increased.Chapter VII is the section of conclusion and policy recommendations of this article.The main innovation of this paper has the following three points:First, we measured the uncertainty by adjusted deviation rate method. This measure can reflect the direction of change. I think, it like risk, when there is a "good news", the uncertainty will increase consumption; On the other hand, it will reduce the consumption.Second, we measured three kinds of uncertainty-income quartile deviation, consumption quartile deviation and short-term loans’real interest rates, and studied the influence of rural residents’ consumption from the combination forecast perspective.Third, the process of model specification in the paper has micro foundation. Meanwhile, the paper sets the the income uncertainty, the income uncertainty and consumption uncertainty obey the modified random walk hypothesis.