| As one of the pillar industries,real estate industry has always exerted an important influence on the lives of Chinese residents.The characteristics of the real estate industry determine its high risk,large capital demand and long investment cycle.In recent years,the development of the real estate industry is rapid and its scale is constantly expanding.Therefore,the stable supply of funds has an important impact on the healthy development of the real estate industry.Today,in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic sweeping the world and slowing down macroeconomic growth,China has begun to deleverage and de-channel while strengthening financial regulation,which has also affected real estate financing.The financing difficulties of the real estate industry and the limited investment channels of small and medium-sized individuals and enterprise investors all urgently require the emergence of new financial products.The birth of real estate investment trusts has built a bridge between real estate and finance,and effectively promoted the circulation and circulation of funds.In 2005,the Overseas Real Estate Investment Trust(hereinafter called the Link Reit),which was issued by the Link Asset Management Limited and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange(formerly known as the Link Reit,but renamed in 2015),is one of the world’s largest retail-based real estate investment trusts.It is also the first REIT to be listed in Hong Kong and the largest REIT in Asia by market capitalisation.The study of risk assessment and prevention and control issues can not only prevent and control fund risks and increase returns,but also have important practical value for the further healthy development of China’s real estate investment trust industry in the long run.In this thesis,the overseas real estate investment trust leading exhibition 2005-1 as the research object,to evaluate and control the risk of this product.First,the thesis expounds the development condition of real estate trust investment fund in our country,explores the motivations and analyzes the existing problems in developing such fund in our country based on the definition of concept and the analysis of related theories.Second,in-depth analysis of overseas real estate investment trusts leading the show 2005-1 risk.It can be divided into the evaluation of the overall risk of the fund and the evaluation of different types of risk of the fund.GARCH-VAR model was used to evaluate the overall risk of overseas real estate investment trusts leading the development of 2005-1,and the yield data of this fund in 17 years was selected to test the fund’s return risk.The evaluation of different types of risks mainly analyzes the impact of investment risk,financing risk,cash flow risk,operating risk and growth risk on the overseas real estate investment trust Lingzhan 2005-1 Fund in the process of operation.Finally,the general idea of risk prevention and control based on real estate investment trusts is put forward,and the specific risk prevention and control suggestions for overseas real estate investment trusts leading the exhibition of 2005-1 are put forward.The research results show that the degree of influence of various risks on the overseas real estate investment trust investment fund(REIT)2005-1 is in the order of growth risk,investment risk,operating risk,financing risk,cash flow risk,and the GARCH(1,1)model based on t distribution has a high degree of fitting for the risk of REIT investment fund.The probability of exceeding the predicted value of VAR is low and the risk is small.In view of this,this thesis proposes to change the fund in the future development process,one is to strengthen the information disclosure to reduce the risk of financing;Second,we should strengthen the market analysis and pay attention to the selection of basic assets to reduce the investment risk.Third,it is necessary to establish dynamic risk monitoring and measurement,reduce principal-agent problems,improve the way of credit enhancement to reduce market risks;Fourth,the control of cash flow risk needs to determine the application of financial derivative strategy in daily operation and management,and entrust professional asset management institutions to manage the fund;Fifth,to establish a diversified investment strategy,through the training of real estate investment professionals,reasonable diversification of investment projects to reduce growth risks. |
PDF Full Text Request