The Effect Of Family Life Cycle Evolution On Residents’ Housing Rental And Purchase Options

Realizing the matching of household housing demand and housing market supply is the core of housing system reform and effective operation of housing market.The choice of renting and purchasing houses is the necessary way to meet the needs of families.Some studies have shown that there is an obvious life cycle effect in residents’ housing rental and purchase choices,and there are significant differences in housing decisions and choices of families at different stages.Since the implementation of the housing commercialization system,China’s real estate market has developed rapidly,and the supply and demand pattern and external environment of the housing market have undergone profound changes.On the one hand,the housing rental and purchase market has obviously tilted to the housing purchase market,on the other hand,the aging of the population is becoming increasingly serious.In 2021,the rental income of real estate development enterprises was 165.180 billion yuan,only 1/77 of the sales of commercial housing.On the other hand,the aging of the population is becoming increasingly serious.In 2021,among the 1.4 billion people in China,191 million people aged over 60 accounted for,accounting for13.64%.In 2022,the population experienced negative growth for the first time.In the face of new housing conflicts and population issues in the new era,the Party Central Committee has made clear the direction of housing reform of "both renting and purchasing" and the policy of "comprehensively opening up the three-child policy.".In this context,analyzing the impact of family life cycle evolution on housing rental purchase options can provide important reference for policy design.This paper integrates various data models,such as Probit,IV Probit,Logit,Mediating Effect,and Moderating Effect,and uses the data from China Household Tracking Survey Questionnaire(CFPS)in 2018 as the research sample to empirically test the changes in house renting and purchasing choices during the evolution of the household life cycle.This paper identifies the mechanism of the role of household life cycle in house renting and purchasing from three aspects,including housing affordability,local health service level,and house price pressure,and distinguishes the differences of the effects at the income and regional levels.Finally,based on the results of empirical analysis,this paper proposes relevant policy recommendations.The results are as follows:(1)The empirical analysis shows that there is an inverse "U-shaped" curve relationship between the evolution of the family’s life cycle and the likelihood of a family buying a house.As the age of the head of household increases,the likelihood of a family buying a house presents a trend of first increasing and then decreasing.After processing endogenous issues and conducting robustness testing,this conclusion is still valid.Families with a head of household aged 50-55 or in a stable period have the highest housing ownership rate.(2)The mechanism of action test shows that the evolution of household life cycle can be influenced by the change of housing affordability,which in turn influences residents’ house renting and purchasing choices,and that the increase of local health service level and house price pressure suppresses the life-cycle effect:of residents’ house renting and purchasing choices.(3)The results of the heterogeneity analysis indicate that there are significant differences in the life cycle effects of residents’ housing rental and purchase choices,as well as the mechanism of housing affordability,local medical service levels,and housing price pressure under the sample households with different incomes and different regions.To this end,this paper puts forward policy suggestions from the aspects of guiding residents to change the traditional concept of house purchase,increasing the targeted rental housing supply,further improving the housing payment ability of residents,reasonably increasing and allocating public service resources,which will help meet residents’ housing needs and promote the development of China’s housing rental market.