Research On The Trade Pattern And Its Influencing Factors Between Sichuan Province And The Countries Along The "the Belt And Road"

In recent years,the trend of anti globalization has become prominent,and the COVID-19 epidemic has further affected the global trade pattern.The "the Belt and Road" initiative provides good development opportunities for China and the countries and regions along the Belt and Road,and promotes mutual benefit and win-win results,regional economic cooperation and common prosperity for all countries.Under the "the Belt and Road" initiative,Sichuan has also actively carried out economic and trade cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road,and established close trade networks with countries along the Road.However,most of the relevant studies start from the national level,and lack of investigation from a smaller provincial perspective.Therefore,this paper takes Sichuan Province as an example to analyze the trade pattern and its influencing factors between the province and 51 countries along the "the Belt and Road" from a provincial perspective,which is of high research significance and value.This article mainly includes four parts.The first part is the relevant literature review and theoretical analysis,demonstrating the connotation of trade pattern,the characteristics of trade pattern of countries along the "the Belt and Road",commodity trade and the influencing factors of trade pattern.Then,using the comparative advantage theory,factor endowment theory,national competitive advantage theory,new classical trade theory,new trade theory and new new trade theory,we analyze the trade pattern between Sichuan Province and the countries along the "the Belt and Road".The second part demonstrates the trade pattern between Sichuan Province and the countries along the "the Belt and Road",focusing on four aspects of time evolution characteristics,spatial pattern,commodity structure,and trade intensity,and reveals four characteristics of Sichuan’s foreign trade pattern: first,foreign trade presents three stages: stable growth,rapid decline,and economic recovery;Secondly,the import trade pattern shows that Malaysia,Israel,the Philippines,Singapore,Thailand,etc.have consistently ranked in the top 10 of Sichuan Province’s import trade for 10 consecutive years,while the export trade pattern shows that India,Russia,Singapore,Vietnam,Malaysia,Thailand,etc.have consistently ranked in the top 10 of Sichuan Province’s export trade for 10 consecutive years;Thirdly,the trade pattern of imported goods indicates that the main imported products in Sichuan Province are machinery and components,as well as chemical industrial products,while the trade pattern of exported goods is concentrated in machinery and components,base metal products,and textile raw materials and products;Fourthly,during the past 10 years(2011-2020),the Philippines,Israel,and Malaysia have a high dependence on the import market of Sichuan Province,while Laos,Malaysia,Pakistan,and Vietnam have a high dependence on the export market of Sichuan Province.The third part discusses the influencing factors of the trade pattern between Sichuan Province and the countries along the "the Belt and Road".This part uses the trade Gravity model to analyze the influencing factors of the trade pattern between Sichuan Province and the 51 countries along the "the Belt and Road",and points out that: the trade volume between Sichuan Province and the countries along the "the Belt and Road" shows a significant positive correlation with the economic scale of Sichuan Province,the degree of openness of the trading countries,natural resources endowment,government expenditure,etc.,which is still valid after the robustness test;At the same time,the heterogeneity analysis proves that among the countries along the "the Belt and Road",the countries or regions that have signed free trade agreements with China,the relevant influencing factors,such as the economic scale of Sichuan Province and the degree of opening up,have a greater impact on the bilateral trade pattern.The fourth part demonstrates relevant countermeasures and suggestions,including: further optimizing the trade pattern and expanding trade channels;Continuously improving the industrial structure and optimizing the technology industry ecology;Emphasize the central radiation role of the Free Trade Zone and expand the radiation area of the Sichuan Chongqing Free Trade Zone;Further improve the transportation mix and reduce transportation costs;Deepen intergovernmental exchanges and cooperation to promote long-term regional development;Pay close attention to the degree of openness and natural resource endowments of trading countries to the outside world.