Research On Risk Early Warning Management Of Loan Guarantee Insurance Based On Digitalization

In China,small and medium-sized enterprises are the main body of the market economy and the basic force of social stability.Small and medium-sized enterprises can effectively alleviate the pressure of social employment,and can also optimize the economic structure and promote economic development,and their social status is irreplaceable.The three-year new crown pneumonia epidemic has caused small and medium-sized enterprises to face a sharp decline in operating income,high maintenance costs,and broken capital chains,and an important constraint to the development of small and medium-sized enterprises is the difficulty of financing.The loan guarantee insurance business has enriched the financing products of the financial market and opened a window for SME financing,but with the release of the "New Ten",the strong growth of business scale has also expanded risk exposure.Loan guarantee insurance transfers all the credit risks of borrowers in the market to insurance companies,but in the environment of imperfect social credit reporting system and imperfect relevant laws and regulations,the risk of loan guarantee insurance is increasing day by day.In particular,the insured’s weak awareness of credit investigation and the risk of anti-fraud lead to the increasing risk of non-performance of repayment obligations,which makes the default risk problem of loan guarantee insurance extremely serious.The risk management of this business has become a difficult and painful point for insurance companies,and how to reduce the risk of loan guarantee insurance has become an important topic to promote the benign development of the insurance industry.From the historical literature,the research on loan guarantee insurance risk management mainly focuses on the identification of risk factors and risk control measures,one is the lack of weight determination of risk factors,the other is that there is little mention of risk early warning management model,and the third is the failure to empower loan guarantee insurance risk management through digital technology.This article will solve the above three problems through analysis and research.Nowadays,the "digital economy" has increasingly become a new engine of economic development,and it is necessary for insurance companies to establish a big data alliance to use modern digital technology to identify borrowers’ default risk factors and estimate the probability of risk occurrence,so as to achieve effective risk control of loan guarantee insurance.This study first starts from the basic concepts and characteristics of loan guarantee insurance,and sorts out the relevant literature and risk management theory.Then,the default risk of loan guarantee insurance is analyzed,the significant influencing factors causing default risk are excavated,a risk index system is established,the weight of each risk index is determined by analytic hierarchy(AHP),and a risk early warning management model based on Logistic is constructed and tested.Then,the development status of loan guarantee insurance business of insurance companies is analyzed,the main problems encountered in the development process are discussed,and the model test and empirical analysis are carried out based on the post-insurance data of PICC Jiangxi loan insurance.Finally,the risk management scheme of insurance company loan guarantee insurance based on digital management and its implementation path are proposed.This study aims to improve the risk management and control capabilities of PICC Property & Casualty Jiangxi Branch through the risk early warning management of loan guarantee insurance,effectively reduce the economic losses caused by credit risk,and provide reference for the risk management of loan guarantee insurance business of other insurance companies.