Research On Wealth Effect And Spatial Spillover Effect Of China’s Real Estate Market

With the full implementation of "marketization" in housing reform and housing construction in 1998,China’s real estate market has developed rapidly.According to the existing theories of western research,the rise of house prices will greatly increase the real estate wealth in the hands of residents,and then promote the rise of residents’ consumption,and finally show a positive real estate wealth effect.In China,the theoretical results are not significant and there are significant differences.In China,with the rapid rise of house prices,the consumption rate of Chinese residents did not rise at the same time,but showed a continuous downward trend.So,in terms of China’s real estate market,is the rise of house prices a positive wealth effect,that is,the rise of house prices can stimulate consumption,or another negative wealth effect,that is,the rise of house prices will eventually inhibit consumption? In this regard,this paper explores this issue.In terms of exploring ideas,this paper expands from two directions :(1)whether the wealth effect of real estate exists,and what is the direction and size of the wealth effect;(2)Whether the wealth effect of China’s real estate market has different impacts on residents’ consumption in different regions,that is,whether there is heterogeneity.In terms of content composition,based on the life cycle lasting income model,this paper makes an empirical analysis on the existence and temporal and spatial characteristics of the wealth effect of real estate market by using the panel data of 31 provinces from 2005 to 2020.In the first chapter,this paper summarizes the research results of domestic and foreign scholars,and further defines the wealth effect of real estate;The second chapter introduces several classical consumption theories and spatial econometrics,and makes a descriptive and exploratory analysis of the transmission mechanism and real estate wealth effect of China’s real estate wealth effect;The third chapter makes a descriptive analysis of China’s real estate market and urban residents’ consumption,tests the global and local spatial autocorrelation of the two indicators based on Moran index,and preliminarily tests the existence of spatial aggregation effect.The fourth chapter selects the panel data of 31 prefectures from2005 to 2020,and empirically analyzes the real estate wealth effect and spatial spillover effect in the whole country and the eastern,central and western regions by using the spatial lag model and spatial error model in the spatial econometric model.Through the empirical analysis this paper draws the following conclusions:(1)from the macro point of view,China’s urban residents’ consumption has a spatial agglomeration phenomenon,the spatial spillover effect is significant,and the per capita disposable income of residents and residents’ consumption show a significant positive correlation;(2)The real estate market in eastern China mainly presents a positive wealth effect,while the less developed real estate market in western China has no significant wealth effect,and even presents a significant negative wealth effect.In this regard,this paper puts forward 3 suggestions:(1)in order to promote the growth of residents’ consumption and maintain the steady and healthy development of the real estate market,the government should gradually improve the income distribution system and increase residents’ income to promote consumption,so as to promote economic growth;(2)Stabilize the real estate market and prevent substantial fluctuations in real estate prices;(3)Due to the city’s implementation of policies,different real estate regulation measures shall be taken for cities with different development stages and different development conditions of the real estate market.