The Research On The Impact Of Exchange Rate Volatility Risk And Channel Substitution Rate On Cross-Border Supply Chain Strategic Decision-Making

In recent years,domestic cross-border import e-commerce platforms have flourished,and many giant enterprises have arranged cross-border e-commerce platforms.In cross-border transactions,exchange rate fluctuations may cause certain losses to enterprises.These cross-border import e-retailer platforms generally provide domestic consumers with two logistics modes,namely bonded warehouse channel and direct mail channel,and there is a certain substitution effect between the two channels.In addition,direct mail channels are more vulnerable to extreme weather.However,extreme weather can be predicted by the Meteorological Bureau.Therefore,e-retailers can choose whether to wait for weather information prediction before making relevant decisions.However,the fluctuation of exchange rate and channel substitution rate may also affect the strategic choice of e-retailers and wait for the prediction of weather information.This paper mainly studies the two-level cross-border supply chain game model composed of a supplier and an e-retailer,makes the supplier as the leader of the model,considers the information decision-making mode when overseas suppliers and e-retailers bear the risk of exchange rate fluctuation respectively,and compares the differences and similarities between them.Firstly,the inverse demand function and profit function of waiting for interruption information prediction and not waiting for interruption information prediction of e-retailers are established respectively when overseas suppliers bear the risk of exchange rate fluctuation and e-retailers bear the risk of exchange rate fluctuation,and the equilibrium solutions under waiting for interruption information prediction model and not waiting for interruption information prediction are solved respectively,On this basis,the effects of exchange rate fluctuation and channel substitution rate on supply chain decision-making and profit are studied,and the differences of different information decision-making modes are analyzed by numerical analysis method.Through a series of analysis methods,this paper concludes that exchange rate fluctuations do not affect the prediction of e-retailers’ strategic choice and waiting for weather information.The channel substitution rate will affect the strategic choice of e-retailers to wait for the prediction of weather information to a certain extent.Finally,through the analysis of the case of Koala shopping,this paper studies the choice of Koala shopping for interruption information prediction,so as to provide some reference for the development of other cross-border e-commerce platform enterprises.