Forecast Of The Income,Expenditure And Contribution Rate Of Basic Pension Insurance Funds For Urban Employees Under The Background Of Social Security Contribution Rate And Base Reduction

In April 2019,the State Council promulgated the "Comprehensive Plan for Reducing Social Insurance Rates",proposing that the enterprise pension insurance contribution rate was reduced from 19%to 16%,and the social insurance contribution base was reduced from the average salary of urban non-private sector employees to the average salary of employees in full-caliber urban units.The reduction of contribution rate and contribution base has brought great challenges to the sustainability of the basic pension insurance funds for urban employees.However,the reform of the social security collection model has also provided an opportunity to increase the collection income of pension insurance premiums,which may offset the reduction in fund balance caused by the "double reduction" of social security.How much does collection rate should increase to hedge against the collection pressure brought about by the "double reduction" of social security?In addition,what impact will the implementation of universal two-child policy,delayed retirement policy or state-owned capital transfer policy have on the income,expenditure and collection rate of the basic pension insurance funds for urban employees?The analysis of the above problems through policy simulation has important practical significance for the social security collection model reform,and is also conducive to enhancing the sustainable operation of the basic pension insurance funds for urban employees.Based on the national 1%population sample survey in 2015 and the national census data,this paper conducts an empirical study on the "double reduction" of social security and the income,expenditure and collection rate of the basic pension insurance funds for urban employees under different policy interventions.Firstly,according to actuarial principles,an actuarial model for the balance of income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance funds for urban employees is constructed,and the model parameters are set reasonably according to the actual situation.Secondly,on the basis of simulating the impact of the "double reduction" of social security on fund income,expenditure and the collection rate,analyze whether the implementation of universal two-child policy,delayed retirement policy,and state-owned capital transfer policy can increase the fund balance and ease the collection pressure.Then,the simulation results are compared and analyzed from the two aspects:one is the income and expenditure of the funds,and another is the actuarial balance collection rate.Finally,the sensitivity analysis is performed and policy recommendations are made.This paper draws the following conclusions:(1)The "double reduction" of social security brings forward the timing of the current and accumulated deficits of the fund and increases the pressure on the pension insurance premiums collection.It is not conducive to the sustainable operation of the basic pension insurance funds for urban employees.(2)The implementation of the universal two-child policy alone has little effect on reducing the size of the fund’s accumulated deficit,and cannot hedge against the increased collection pressure.If the universal two-child policy and the delayed retirement policy are implemented at the same time,it can reduce the scale of the accumulated deficit and ease the pressure of collection appropriately.When the universal two-child policy,delayed retirement policy and state-owned capital transfer policy are implemented at the same time,the fund balance is the most optimistic.When the rate of return on state-owned capital investment reaches 9%,it can completely hedge against the increased collection pressure of social security "double reduction",but there are still fund deficit during the forecast period.(3)In order to improve the sustainability of the funds,the coverage of the pension insurance system should be expanded;the social insurance premium collection system should be improved;the formulation of delayed retirement plans should be accelerated;and the process of stateowned capital transfer should be promoted.