Research On Influencing Factors Of Income Mobility And Vulnerability Of Chinese Middle-income Groups

In the new era,we need a larger and better-quality middle-income group to advance the great goal of common prosperity and comprehensively shape the new development stage and pattern.With the steady and rapid development of our country’s economy and society,our country has cultivated increasingly large groups of middle-income groups whose scale is still an ideal state.The expansion of middle income group mainly comes from the upward mobility of lower income group and the stability of middle income group.Therefore,this thesis discusses the mechanism of influencing factors affecting the income mobility of middle-income groups from the perspective of time and class change.By measuring the vulnerability of middle-income groups and analyzing the influencing factors,targeted measures can be taken to strengthen the mobility of middle-income groups and reduce the vulnerability of middle-income groups.It will help lower income groups realize upward mobility,prevent the tendency of consolidation among income groups,stabilize the stock of middle income groups,and achieve the goal of expanding the middle income group,stabilizing the middle income group,and improving the middle income group.It will not only serve as an accelerator for China’s five-sphere integrated,comprehensive and sustainable development,but also serve as a major force for building a new development pattern in the new stage of development.First of all,this thesis reviews the theoretical basis of the definition of middle-income group,income mobility of middle-income group and vulnerability of middle-income group.Secondly,according to the survey data of CFPS micro database,the author constructs a comprehensive utility index function model based on the adjusted Engel coefficient to measure Chinese middle-income groups and analyze their characteristics.Then the income flow matrix is used to analyze the heterogeneity of the flow situation of Chinese middle-income group subsamples.Then,multiple ordered Logit model was used to explore the mechanism of the influencing factors of the middle-income group from the aspects of family characteristics and individual characteristics by subsample regression method,and the robustness of the results was tested.Finally,the vulnerability incidence of middle-income groups was predicted based on the poverty vulnerability(VEP)method,and the mechanism of influencing factors of vulnerability of middle-income groups under different subsamples was studied by Probit model.The results show that: first,the overall proportion of middle-income groups is on the rise,although there is a certain gap with the olive society,but the overall trend is good.The whole mobility of Chinese households is low,and the tendency of class solidification and the vulnerability of middle income groups are more serious.Second,after studying the mechanism of influencing factors of mobility of middle-income groups,it is found that:among the family characteristics,the smaller the family size,the more labor force,the higher the labor rate,the higher the proportion of wage,business and other income,the easier the family is to become the middle-income group.In terms of personal characteristics,the younger the head of the household,the female,the more educated,the more frequently the head of the household uses the Internet to work,the more concerned about politics,the work unit belongs to the system,and the family engaged in non-agricultural entrepreneurship,the more likely to enter the middle income group.Thirdly,after studying the mechanism of influencing factors on the vulnerability of middle-income groups,it is found that: among family characteristics,reducing the size of family,increasing labor security,increasing the proportion of operating income,wage income and family assets can effectively reduce the vulnerability of middle-income families.Among the personal characteristics,the higher the education level,the more frequently the Internet is used to work,and the families working in the system are more likely to reduce the vulnerability of middle-income families.Finally,this thesis provides the following policy suggestions for expanding the middle-income scale based on the effect strength and direction of family size,income structure and individual characteristics from the perspective of improving the mobility of middle-income groups and reducing their vulnerability:(1)Expand employment capacity,improve residents’ employment rate,and encourage,expand and standardize the "new gig economy".(2)Pay attention to the investment in the field of education,increase the accumulation of human resources,improve the quality and quality of vocational education and higher education,value-added capabilities,and cultivate diversified talents.(3)Improve social welfare,strengthen the employment security mechanism,and strengthen the construction of public welfare posts for vulnerable groups.Improving the quality of life of middle-income families and addressing key livelihood issues of certain middle-income groups.(4)Expand political publicity,strengthen political construction and training,publicize typical examples and increase demonstration effect.(5)Improve the composition of income,increase residents’ income through various channels,establish a sound property protection mechanism,reduce the risk of starting a business,support their own business,increase their enthusiasm for independent operation,and promote local residents to find employment and increase their income.