System Dynamics Simulation On E-commerce-assisted Agricultural Products Upward Mode

Agricultural products upward,also named as “agricultural products from villages to cities”,are process of selling agricultural products,especially high-quality agricultural products,which produced in rural areas to the cities.Many factors,such as weak infrastructure in rural areas,lead to serious post-production depletion of agricultural products and low upward efficiency of agricultural products.Data show that the post-harvest loss rate of China’s agricultural products,especially fresh fruits and vegetables,is as high as 20%～30%,mainly in the "first kilometer" of circulation,resulting in a decline in the quality of agricultural products.Faced with fierce market competition and high loss rates,fresh food e-commerce companies often increase production but cannot increase income by lowering purchase prices to transfer losses.The upward model of efficient and high-quality agricultural products is the core to meet the growing demand for high-quality fresh food consumption of urban and rural residents and realize rural revitalization.2022 No.1 central document proposed accelerating the implementation of the "digital business revitalization of agriculture" and "Internet +" for selling agricultural products from village to cities;2023 No.1 central document once again emphasized to comprehensively promote the construction of county commercial system and support the construction of cold chain distribution centers in production areas.Under the guidance of national policies and the promotion of the market,a large number of fresh food e-commerce enterprises have plunged into the upstream of the agricultural product industry chain through agreements to innovate the upward mode of agricultural products.For example,Alibaba launched the "Thousands of Counties and Villages" program in 2014,built five digital agricultural consolidation and processing centers(referred to as "origin warehouse")across the country,and built 20 sales warehouses in several provincial capitals,exploring the upward model of "origin warehouse + sales warehouse" for agricultural products.At the end of 2022,Pinduoduo launched the "Warm Winter Action" in many places across the country,cooperating with local governments to solve the storage and circulation of agricultural products;JD.com is planning to use the advantages of its logistics network to establish 100,000 live broadcast bases for agricultural products across the country,lay out 530 agricultural specialty production areas,and broaden the upward channel of agricultural products.The model of e-commerce to help agricultural products upward is being explored and practiced.At present,problems such as insufficient cold chain transportation capacity,long acquisition time,and low professionalism of origin warehouse are widespread,and the problem of storage and transportation loss of fresh agricultural products is still serious,which greatly restricts farmers to increase production and income.Therefore,under the background of "digital commerce revitalizing agriculture",it is of great practical significance to study and explore an efficient upward mode of agricultural products,which is of great practical significance to improve the upward efficiency of e-commerce and solve the problem of "difficulty in selling" agricultural products.This thesis synthesizes the existing practice and research literature,and systematically sorts out the development process of China’s e-commerce to help agricultural products upward and its model;The System Dynamics(SD)model of "cold warehouse of origin distributors + fresh e-commerce distribution center" mode of agricultural products upward is researched,and SD causal feedback analysis and dynamic simulation theory are applied to analyze the dynamic changes of total consumption of agricultural products and the income of each entity under this mode and the internal mechanism of changes.Referring to Alibaba’s digital agricultural products consolidation and transportation center model,an SD simulation model of the upward mode of agricultural products of "e-commerce digital origin warehouse+ sales warehouse" was constructed.The fresh consumption,inventory and income of each entity of the two upward modes are simulated and comparatively analyzed,and suggestions for the optimization of e-commerce to help agricultural products upward are proposed.The main research work and conclusions of this thesis are as follows:(1)Using the method of literature research,systematically sort out the development process and results of China’s agricultural product e-commerce support policies and e-commerce to help agricultural products upward,clarify the structural characteristics of agricultural products upward mode at each stage,and analyze the current situation of China’s e-commerce to help agricultural products upward.Studies show that China’s e-commerce has been effective in helping agricultural products to rise,but there are still problems such as serious loss of the "first kilometer" of agricultural products,high circulation costs,and imperfect cold chain logistics construction.The "origin warehouse" helps the upward mode of agricultural products,reduces the post-production loss of agricultural products to a certain extent,and improves the upward efficiency of agricultural products.(2)Based on the above upward status and model analysis of agricultural products,research and establish an SD model of "origin distributor cold warehouse + fresh e-commerce distribution center" mode for the upward movement of agricultural products,and analyze the total consumption of agricultural products and the dynamic changes of the economic performance of each entity through simulation;The SD causal feedback structure analysis method was used to analyze the internal structural causes and main influencing factors that led to the serious total loss of agricultural products under this upward mode.The results show that the total consumption of agricultural products is mainly affected by the average purchase time of agricultural products,the pre-cooling rate of the place of origin,the applicable packaging level,the temperature and humidity control level and the transportation time,and the average purchase time of agricultural products and the pre-cooling rate of the place of origin have a greater impact on the consumption of the "first kilometer" of agricultural products.(3)Referring to the model of the Alibaba’s digital agricultural consolidation and processing center,study and establish an SD simulation model of the upward mode of "e-commerce digital origin warehouse + sales warehouse" agricultural products,and carry out simulation.The impact of different purchase prices on the total consumption of agricultural products,inventories and the income of each entity under the two upward modes was compared and analyzed.The results show that under the same purchase price,the total loss of the digital origin warehouse model is significantly reduced compared with the origin dealer cold storage mode,and the e-commerce operation profit is much greater than the profit of e-commerce and origin dealers under the origin dealer cold storage mode.Therefore,the optimization suggestions for e-commerce to help agricultural products upward are proposed.