Simulation Study Of Policy Evaluation And Optimization Of Urban Industrial Land Renewal

In recent years,with the evolution of urban development from industrialization to post industrialization,urban industrial land renewal has become one of the important ways to adjust urban economic structure,change economic development mode and realize industrial optimization and upgrading.Its renewal effect is related to the healthy and sustainable development of the city and the improvement of the quality and efficiency of urban space.With the acceleration of industrialization and the intensification of the contradiction between the construction of new urbanization,the central and local governments attach great importance to the renewal of urban industrial land,and have designed a series of policy combinations for its development and reuse.From 2000 to 2021,the central government issued a total of 212 relevant urban industrial land renewal policies.So far,China’s urban industrial land renewal has gone through 20 years and has formed a policy system of planning,supply,incentive and supervision.However,in the actual operation process,there are still some problems,such as unreasonable policy structure,inconsistent policy objectives and inadequate policy implementation.Therefore,taking the urban industrial land renewal policy as the research object,this paper evaluates the urban industrial land renewal policy from multiple spaces(central level-provincial level-municipal level)and multiple levels(the evolution process of renewal policy,the effectiveness of policy text,policy diffusion logic,policy effect and policy optimization simulation),which is a further deepening of the existing research.The main conclusions of this paper include:(1)The overall design of urban industrial land renewal policy is reasonable.There are 212 relevant urban industrial land renewal policy texts in China,of which97 are acceptable,107 are good,7 are excellent,and none is perfect.The PMC index of 10 urban industrial land renewal policies intercepted showed an overall upward trend,and the score increased from 4.77 to 7.49.The study found that the renewal of urban industrial land in China has improved in rationality and sustainability.There is still much room for improvement in the existing urban industrial land renewal policy documents.In addition,the formulation of policy text should further refine how to solve the conflict of various stakeholders and give consideration to the efficiency and fairness in the process of urban industrial land renewal.(2)The diffusion of urban industrial land renewal policy is affected by multiple logics.Taking 29 provinces as an example,based on the analysis framework of "demand driven pressure response efficiency consideration",this paper finds that the diffusion of urban industrial land renewal policy in China is generally on the rise,and demand driven,pressure response and efficiency consideration have an important impact on the diffusion of urban industrial land renewal policy.In different stages and different regions,each logical variable will affect the acceptance of urban industrial land renewal policy to varying degrees.(3)Different policy tools will have different restrictive effects on the renewal effect of urban industrial land.VAR model is used to test the impact of the application of policy tools on the effectiveness variables of urban industrial land renewal in China.The results show that there is a long-term stable relationship between the classification of policy tools and the effectiveness of urban industrial land renewal.The classification of policy tools has a heterogeneous impact on the effectiveness of urban industrial land renewal.Different types of policy tools have a certain time lag effect on the effectiveness of urban industrial land renewal in China.(4)There is still much room for improvement of urban industrial land renewal policies.Based on system dynamics,the renewal of industrial land in the central urban area of Wuhan under the action of different policies and policy combinations is simulated.The results show that under the benchmark scenario,the renewal level of industrial land in the central urban area of Wuhan can be continuously improved,and the progress in the field of economic development is the most obvious;Under the single policy situation,the overall driving force of industrial land renewal level is as follows: economic incentive policy > industrial structure optimization policy > land use policy;In the context of combined policy,the application of the dual driving mode of land use and industrial structure optimization helps to improve the economical and intensive use of land;The application of the dual driving mode of economic incentive and industrial structure optimization can accelerate the adjustment of industrial structure;If we want to realize industrial added value quickly,we should choose the dual driving mode of economic incentive and industrial structure optimization.If we want to realize the added value of service industry quickly,we should choose the dual driving mode of economic incentive and land use.