Research On Supply Chain Coordination Of Manufacturers’ Low-Carbon Service Outsourcing From The Perspective Of Overconfidence

Since the industrial revolution,when humans created vast amounts of material prosperity,they have also increased environmental destruction,and the conflict between humans and global warming has grown in prominence.The international community has established several carbon policies to control carbon emissions in response to climate change,such as carbon emissions cap-and-trade,carbon taxes,and mandated emission reductions.With the proposal of "carbon peaking,carbon neutrality",how to reduce emissions and increase efficiency has gradually become a problem that enterprises need to face.In addition,due to the technical barriers to emission reduction,differences in industrial cost structure,and restrictions on emission reduction operation capacity among enterprises,the high investment of enterprises leads to low emission reduction efficiency.Therefore,enterprises can entrust professional low-carbon service providers to carry out low-carbon operations,so that enterprises can be more efficient.Focus on production services.However,because the main decision-makers are all bounded rationality,overconfidence has become a common cognitive error in an enterprise,which will affect the decisionmaking behavior of the main decision-makers in the process of low-carbon service outsourcing,as well as the emission reduction cooperation of the supply chain.In this context,this paper uses game-theoretic theory and methods to investigate how overconfidence affects members of the low-carbon service outsourcing supply chain in the secondary supply chain,which is made up of manufacturers and lowcarbon service providers,and how to coordinate decision-making among enterprises in the low-carbon service outsourcing supply chain based on the form of low-carbon service outsourcing decision-making.By structuring a low carbon service outsourcing type supply chain model for manufacturers and low carbon service providers,this paper analyzes the enterprise income and manufacturer output of manufacturers and low-carbon service providers under the two situations that manufacturers are overconfident in product pricing and low-carbon service providers are overconfident in their ability to reduce emissions.The impact of supply chain coordination and emission reduction decisions,such as the level of service providers’ emission reduction efforts,etc.,analyze the decision results of each overconfidence situation,and design contracts to coordinate and optimize the low-carbon service outsourcing supply chain.Both theoretical and numerical analysis results show that overconfidence is not conducive to the development of low-carbon service outsourcing supply chain,and contract design will further coordinate and optimize the low-carbon service outsourcing supply chain.Finally,based on the analysis of the research results,relevant suggestions are put forward from the perspectives of manufacturers and lowcarbon service providers to promote the coordinated development of joint emission reduction in the supply chain.