The Impact Of Supply Shock Of International Supply Chain On Manufacturing Upgrading

Since China joined the World Trade Organization,it has been participating in international trade activities more and more closely,but the added value of participating in the international industrial chain and value chain is not high,and the overall manufacturing industry is in the predicament of "low-end lock",making it difficult to break through the problem of "neck" of key technologies.At the same time,the international political environment is unstable and the "new crown epidemic" has led to domestic enterprises facing the tightening of the international supply chain supply situation.In the face of complex changes in the external environment,China put forward the "double cycle" policy concept,not only to give full play to the advantages of the domestic market as the main body,but also to actively expand the international market,to participate in the international industry chain production at the same time,to further improve the domestic enterprise’s independent innovation capabilities,to give full play to the role of the two market environments.In the face of the market environment of international supply chain supply shock,the upgrading of China’s manufacturing enterprises is an opportunity or a challenge that needs further study.Based on combing the theoretical literature related to international supply chain supply shocks and manufacturing upgrading,this paper collates micro panel data of China’s listed manufacturing enterprises from 2009-2016 to further empirically test the impact of international supply chain supply shocks on the upgrading of manufacturing enterprises.First,this paper reviews the current research status and theoretical basis of international supply chain supply shocks and manufacturing upgrading,and sorts out the influencing factors.Meanwhile,through the China Statistical Yearbook and UN Comtrade database,the current situation of international intermediate goods import and the current situation of manufacturing upgrading are described,and the situation of imported intermediate goods and the dilemma of manufacturing upgrading in China are further obtained.Secondly,using the China Customs database and CEPII BACI database from 2009-2016,the listed manufacturing companies with the import behavior of imported intermediate goods are matched and the indicators of international supply chain supply shocks are calculated andthe panel data from 2010-2016 are constructed to establish an econometric model to verify the effect of its influence on manufacturing upgrading.And the financing constraint factor is added to the empirical model to further analyze the moderating effect of this factor on the main effect.The main finding is that when enterprises are subjected to international supply chain supply shocks,they are able to enhance manufacturing upgrading capacity by increasing innovation capital investment and innovation manpower investment,but the financing constraint factor inhibits the promotion effect of international supply chain supply shocks on manufacturing upgrading.Further group discussion reveals that there are heterogeneous differences in the nature of enterprise equity,enterprise size and enterprise location,mainly showing that the promotion effect of international supply chain supply shock is stronger for state-owned enterprises,large-scale enterprises and enterprises in coastal areas.Finally,based on the theoretical research and empirical findings,the following suggestions are drawn: enterprises need to pay attention to the risk factors of global supply chain disruption,reduce the reliance on imported intermediate goods with high technology content,and strengthen the enterprises’ independent innovation investment.The government should improve the talent attraction policy in each region,establish a supply chain financing system,and stimulate the innovation and upgrading vitality of enterprises in non-coastal regions.