Heterogeneous Causal Research On Green Credit Policy And Firm Efficiency

The 20 th National People’s Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that high-quality development is the primary task of building a socialist modern country in an all-round way,and promoting green and low-carbon development is the key link to achieve high-quality development.In September 2020,General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed at the 75 th session of the United Nations General Assembly the "30.60" goal of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality",which has become an important driving force for the high-quality development of China’s economy.Under the background of "dual carbon",China’s green financial market has developed rapidly,and the scale of green credit has leapt to the first in the world,becoming an important starting point for realizing the goal of "dual carbon".For enterprises,green credit products mainly promote enterprises to complete environmental governance and fulfill social responsibilities by adjusting the financing constraints of enterprises.Since the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the "Green Credit Guidelines" in 2012,the pollution control level of Chinese enterprises has improved significantly,and the ecological environment has gradually improved.However,the quality of environmental governance often conflicts with the production level of enterprises.In the early stage of development,enterprises usually meet environmental governance requirements at the cost of a decline in production levels.Only when enterprises develop to a certain extent can they bear the cost of green innovation,improve the environment and increase production capacity at the same time.All in all,under the "dual carbon" goal,the green credit policy has a heterogeneous impact on the production and operation of enterprises,and it is particularly important to study the source of this heterogeneity and its mechanism of action.First,Based on the panel data of China ’s A-share listed companies from 2008 to2021,this paper estimates the average causal effect and conditional average causal effect of green credit policy on enterprise operating efficiency based on causal forest algorithm,and uses BLP test to verify the heterogeneity of causal effect of green credit policy on enterprise operating efficiency.Secondly,using the importance score ranking results of the causal forest model and the trend analysis of conditional causal effects,it is determined that firm size,profitability,financing constraints and ownership structure are the sources of heterogeneity of green credit policy effects and the fixed effect model is used to test the statistical significance of these heterogeneous sources.Then,the conditional causal effects are grouped to test the robustness of the heterogeneous causal effects of green credit policy.Finally,starting from the interaction between variables,this paper further analyzes the moderating effect between the heterogeneous sources of causal effect,and finds that the moderating effect between profitability,financing constraints and ownership structure is obvious,and the influence of company size on the heterogeneity of green credit policy effect is relatively independent.Based on the research conclusions,this paper puts forward the following suggestions from the perspective of the country,banks,enterprises and universities:1.The relevant departments of the state should encourage more banks of various types to actively participate in the green credit policy,further increase the scale of green credit in my country,and play the role of economies of scale.2.Banks should fully investigate the operating conditions of enterprises,improve the evaluation mechanism of enterprise loan qualifications,and strengthen the construction of green credit policy systems.3.Enterprises should rationally adjust production and operation strategies,improve information disclosure mechanisms,respond to environmental regulatory policies such as green credit,and achieve steady growth in operating efficiency while completing environmental governance.4.Researchers of universities and relevant banking departments should establish a unified enterprise evaluation mechanism through the research system integrating industry,university and research to improve the implementation efficiency of green credit policies.