Research On The Supply And Demand Scale Forecast And Policy Of Low-income Housing In Beijing

With our economy grows rapidly,The first-tier cities,led by Beijing,have become the gathering places of a large number of people,students and low-income families who have just entered the city can not afford the high cost of housing.In order to achieve the goal of“Having a place to live” and “A good place to live,” Beijing vigorously promotes the construction of low-income housing,Through years of exploration,The social housing has played an active role in alleviating the housing problems of the low-and middle-income groups,but at present our country is in the primary stage of housing security,and the contradiction between supply and demand is still outstanding,most low-and middle-income groups can not get enough housing.First of all,this paper introduces the concept and development of the low-income housing,combs the evolution of the supply system of low-income housing in Beijing,then introduces the operating mechanism of the government-subsidized housing in Beijing from the aspects of management framework,supply target,rent subsidy standard and audit process,then it analyzes the problems of the supply-demand contradiction,the unclear legal basis,the unestablished information sharing mechanism,the unsound withdrawal mechanism and the insufficient security of the elderly group in Beijing.On this basis,this paper identifies the factors influencing the scale of affordable housing from the perspectives of government supply side,resident demand side and commercial housing market,and constructs the index system of factors affecting the scale of social housing.Using PCA and Multiple Linear Regression,The influencing factors were screened.The aging ratio,per capita housing area,family size and urbanization rate had a higher influence degree,based on VAR model,the paper analyzes the interactive relationship between the screened factors and the scale of affordable housing in Beijing.Using the grey forecasting GM(1.1)model and curve fitting estimation to calculate the selected influencing factors,and then taking it as the input variable of BP neural network model,the predicted value of the scale of the low-income housing is obtained,it then measures the demand for affordable housing and draws the following conclusions from the forecast results:(1)There are a large number of people in Beijing who can not afford to buy housing and do not meet the threshold of applying for government-subsidized housing.The government can appropriately relax the scope of low-income housing security.(2)According to the current law of development,the demand for affordable housing is still in short supply,and the future shortage is increasing trend.(3)According to the relevant theoretical analysis,in the late development of housing security scale and economic level gradually adapt to the inverted “U” curve of development,but before entering the period of decline,it is still necessary to increase the scale of affordable housing.(4)With the implementation of the government’s affordable housing policy,the shortage of affordable housing in Beijing has been alleviated to a certain extent,but the shortage is still prominent.Finally,the paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions for its influencing factors.Hoping it can guide the government to provide a more scientific and more sound supply system and implementation methods for the social housing,so that the scale of low-income housing and low-income groups to achieve a balance of the actual housing needs of the state,so as to reduce the housing contradiction.