Study On The Impact Of Cross-border Logistics Level On Bilateral Goods Trade Between China And RCEP Countries

In 2012,Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)launched the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)for the first time,which lasted eight years until 2020.China,New Zealand,Australia,South Korea,Japan and the 10 ASEAN countries signed the RCEP trade agreement.The research shows that China and RCEP countries have complementary regional advantages,while the bilateral trade scale is expanding,and the trade structure is increasingly close.The main transportation mode of trade between China and other RCEP countries is shipping,so the analysis of cross-border logistics in this paper is mainly a descriptive statistical analysis of the shipping level of each country.By comparing and verifying different logistics indexes,this paper selects the liner transport connectivity index and bilateral liner transport connectivity index released by the World Conference on Trade and Development as the evaluation indexes of cross-border logistics of RCEP countries for qualitative analysis.Besides,this paper selects the liner transport connectivity index to conduct a qualitative analysis of its correlation with the bilateral trade between China and RCEP member countries,and concludes that China’s bilateral trade with 11 countries is positively correlated with the liner transport connectivity index.It can be concluded that the relationship between the shipping level of these countries and our bilateral trade has a relatively significant correlation.Finally,in the election year of China and 13 RCEP countries(except Laos)from 2010 to 2021 liner transport connectivity index,bilateral goods trade data,population size of each country,economic aggregate of each country and other panel data samples,this paper uses the expanded trade gravity equation model for empirical analysis and test.The results of the empirical analysis show that the cross-border logistics level represented by the liner transport index has a significant positive impact on the bilateral trade volume between China and RCEP countries.Every 1% increase in the liner transport connectivity index leads to a 0.370 percent increase in bilateral trade volume.