Research And Development Of Garlic Target Price Insurance And Management System In Cang Shan

Agricultural product target price insurance as an important component of the agricultural product target price policy system,plays an important role in responding to market shocks and ensuring farmers’ benefits.Since 2017,the pilot garlic target price insurance work has been carried out in Lanling County,Shandong Province.The insured area of garlic has been increasing in the last years.The target price and insured cost have been optimized and adjusted,which has effectively increased the anti-risk ability of garlic farmers and effectively guaranteed the stable income of garlic farmers.However,we find that there are still some problems that cannot be ignored in the current insurance pilot work,such as the unreasonable setting of insurance target price and rate,the existence of information barriers between garlic farmers and insurance companies,ect.Inspired by these problems,in the paper,we focus on the research and system development of Cang Shan garlic target price insurance.The main contents are as follows.(1)Target price insurance analysisBy using the x-12 seasonal adjustment method and the hp filter method,we analyze the garlic off-site price data,we find that the seasonal characteristics of garlic off-site price fluctuate significantly and there are "five peaks and four valleys" of garlic price fluctuation.The price fluctuations implies the necessity of studying garlic target price insurance.The analysis of the data shows that the implementation of the current insurance can successfully compensate the losses of garlic farmers caused by the decline of garlic market prices to some extent,and plays a positive role in stabilizing the price of garlic for the benefit of farmers.Logistic regression analysis of garlic farmers’ willingness to participate in target price insurance was conducted by distributing questionnaires.The results are analyzed from various perspectives.Finally,we summarize the shortcomings of garlic target price insurance at present,such as the existence of unreasonable settings of target price and rate,and the existence of information barriers between garlic farmers and insurance companies,which gives the direction of the later research.(2)Target price setting and rate determinationBased on the ground price data of garlic in Cang Shan from June to September 2017-2021,ARIMA model,exponential smoothing,and gray prediction model are fitted to this sample data for prediction,respectively.Finally,the ARMA(1,1)model is found to be the best fit by comparison.The output target price data are combined with the planting cost to take a comprehensive value for the target price.The final target price set is 1.72 yuan/catty.Based on the measured target price,the rates under different coverage levels are calculated by nonparametric kernel density function calculation and Monte Carlo simulation.(3)Development and implementation of insurance management systemBased on the above research results and the measurement of target price and rate,in the paper,we design and implement a garlic target price insurance management system for the problem of information communication between garlic farmers and insurance companies found in the research.The system mainly includes garlic planting guide management,garlic production information management,garlic insurance information management,policy management,and system management modules.The system can provide a platform for garlic farmers,insurance companies and government agencies to share and exchange information,and effectively solve the problem of information barriers that arise in the research.