| Agricultural product target price insurance serves as a market risk management tool to compensate producers for losses caused by price declines.In 2020,Yunnan Province launched a pilot project for flower target price insurance,incorporating market risk into the agricultural insurance system.But how effective is the implementation of flower target price insurance products? What are the problems in the pilot program? How to better promote the development of flower target price insurance products? Based on these issues,this article conducts in-depth research on the development of flower price insurance in Yunnan Province.The vigorous development of the flower industry in Yunnan Province is a prerequisite for the development of flower target price insurance products.This article first introduces the operation mode of the flower industry and flower target price insurance in Yunnan Province;And from a micro perspective,use research data to explain the pilot implementation of target price insurance for flowers in Yunnan Province.Next,an analysis was conducted on the effectiveness of flower target price insurance,indicating that flower target price insurance has indeed stabilized flower prices to a certain extent and increased the enthusiasm of flower farmers for planting.However,through on-site visits to Kunming International Flower Auction Center,insurance companies,and flower growers,combined with the analysis of the survey questionnaire mentioned earlier,it is pointed out that there are problems in the operation of insurance: firstly,the target price of flower target price insurance is currently set based on the average price of the past year.On the one hand,there are certain differences in the prices of different varieties and levels of flowers,making the target price inaccurate;On the other hand,when setting the target price,insufficient consideration was given to future development trends,resulting in an unreasonable target price;Secondly,the target price insurance for flowers mainly targets large planters,with a high insurance threshold,and the insurance policy cannot benefit the vast number of retail investors with insurance needs;Thirdly,the phenomenon of relying on financial subsidies has increased financial pressure,and the increase in the proportion of farmers’ self paid premiums has led to a decrease in farmers’ enthusiasm for insurance,which is not conducive to the sustainable development of flower target price insurance;Fourthly,the insurance promotion is insufficient,with weak and limited coverage.Farmers’ understanding of the target price insurance for flowers is not sufficient,resulting in misunderstandings among farmers when making compensation.Then,this article conducted empirical analysis and decomposed the flower price series using the Census X-12 seasonal adjustment method and H-P filtering method to obtain the trend,cyclical,seasonal,and random factors that affect the fluctuation of flower prices.It was confirmed that the target price insurance of flowers ignored long-term trend factors in setting the target price,and the ARMA model was used to predict flower prices,proposing to set the target price using the predicted price,To improve the accuracy and scientificity of flower target prices.Finally,in order to ensure the sustainable development of flower target price insurance in Yunnan Province,the article proposes optimization suggestions: in response to the problem of setting target prices,first improve the monitoring mechanism of flower price data,determine the target price by predicting prices,and dynamically adjust the flower target price by category,level,and cycle;Reduce insurance requirements to allow retail investors to directly purchase insurance;Introducing the "bank+insurance" model with credit support provided by the government to alleviate the pressure on government and farmers’ insurance premiums;Strengthen the promotion of flower target price insurance products through multiple channels and entities,and enhance the understanding and awareness of flower farmers and enterprises regarding insurance products.This article analyzes the insurance scheme of target price insurance for flowers and the survey questionnaire of farmers,identifies the shortcomings of current target price insurance for flowers,and puts forward improvement suggestions.It provides ideas and policy suggestions for the comprehensive implementation of target price insurance for flowers and the expansion of the coverage of target price insurance for flowers in Yunnan Province. |
