| As major participants in market economic activities,enterprises play a key role in promoting high-quality economic development.Preferential tax policy is an effective means to stimulate the vitality of the main body of the market economy,especially the real industry,which is of great significance to the economic development of any country.It is very important to pay attention to the development of manufacturing industry and analyze the factors affecting its development to promote the development of manufacturing industry and accelerate the pace of building a manufacturing power.There are many factors affecting the development of manufacturing industry,including technical level,market demand,talent reserve,policy support,etc.These factors interact with each other and constitute a complex environment for the development of manufacturing industry.Besides preferential tax policies,the government has also adopted other measures to support the development of the manufacturing industry,such as providing financial support and strengthening technological innovation.These measures can help smooth the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry,enhance its core competitiveness and promote the rapid development of the country’s real economy.This paper aims to evaluate the 2018 VAT rebate policy by studying its impact on the total factor productivity of enterprises in the stipulated "18+1" manufacturing industry,and provide reference for the improvement of the tax rebate policy and VAT reform.This paper firstly combs the literature from three perspectives: the influence factors of domestic and foreign literature on enterprise total factor productivity,the influence of tax policy on enterprise total factor productivity and the influence of tax credit policy on enterprise development.Then,the main concepts and theoretical basis of this paper are expounded.Combined with relevant theories,whether the reform of retention credit and tax rebate in 2018 can promote the total factor productivity of manufacturing enterprises is analyzed,and the heterogeneity is analyzed from the property nature,size and growth of enterprises.Finally,the transmission mechanism of cash flow in this process is verified,and five hypotheses are proposed according to the above theories.Secondly,it briefly analyzes the evolution process of tax credit and its completion,systematically sorts out the policy of tax credit and tax credit at each stage,and focuses on the distribution of tax credit in 2018 and summarizes the results.Then,based on the financial statement data of listed companies,the total factor productivity of enterprises over the years was calculated,its change trend was analyzed,and the differential difference model was constructed for empirical analysis.The empirical research results are as follows: The VAT rebate policy has a positive incentive effect on the total factor productivity of manufacturing enterprises.Robustness tests,such as parallel trend test,placebo test,replacement of explained variables,and sample size reduction,all prove the reliability of regression results.Cash flow plays a conduction role,and small,non-state-owned enterprises with low growth are more affected.Finally,according to the empirical analysis results,it is suggested that the threshold of tax refund should be lowered,and the participation of non-state-owned enterprises,small and medium-sized enterprises and low-growth enterprises should be increased. |