| Due to the advancement of economic globalization and the rapid technological progress brought by the technological revolution,the manufacturing industry has occupied an important position in the industrial strategy of all countries in the world.However,compared with the high-end manufacturing industry in developed countries,China is still in the middle and low-end manufacturing level,plus the advantages of China’s demographic dividend and labor cost begin to weaken,in order to make China step into the global manufacturing power,the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry becomes the top priority.The path of transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry is especially important in the productive service industry,because the productive service industry can promote specialized division of labor and reduce transaction costs,which is conducive to the improvement of downstream manufacturing productivity.The development of productive service industry in China lags far behind that of developed countries,and there are also defects of small scale and low quality,which to a certain extent affects the upgrading of China’s manufacturing industry from middle and low end to high end,because China has implemented Theoretical studies have also confirmed that trade in goods and FDI in productive services can form technology spillover effects and further improve total factor productivity of manufacturing industry,which is conducive to promoting the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry.Therefore,this paper has some theoretical and practical significance to study the effects of trade in goods and FDI in productive service industries on manufacturing productivity.This paper firstly defines the concepts of trade in goods,FDI in productive services and total factor productivity of manufacturing industry on the basis of relevant theoretical studies,and analyzes the mechanisms of the effects of trade in goods and FDI in productive services on total factor productivity of manufacturing industry from three aspects: capital effect,economy of scale effect and competition effect.Based on the existing scholars’ research on the relationship between trade in goods and FDI,we can learn that there may be a non-linear relationship between trade in goods and FDI in productive services.Therefore,this paper introduces the interaction term of the two in the benchmark regression model to determine whether they promote each other or are substitution effects in the process of influencing total factor productivity in manufacturing.Then,based on the panel data of 20 Chinese provinces from 2010-2019,this paper measures the total factor productivity,technical progress and technical efficiency of manufacturing industries in each province using the DEA-Malmquist index method,and establishes three econometric models based on the Cobb-Douglas production function theory.Then,in order to circumvent the endogeneity problem,this paper investigates the effects of trade in goods and FDI in productive services and their interaction terms on manufacturing productivity in the short and long run,respectively,with the help of instrumental variables method and GMM estimation,and analyzes the impact mechanisms in two ways,namely,technical progress and technical efficiency,and also explores the regional differences by regression in the eastern,central and western regions.Finally,this paper uses the limited information maximum likelihood estimation(LIML),substitution of explanatory variables method for robustness testing to verify the correctness of the empirical results.Through theoretical and empirical analyses,it is found that(1)both trade in goods and productive services FDI significantly contribute to the growth of manufacturing productivity,and there is a significant mutual promotion relationship between these two.This is because trade in goods helps to expand the scale of productive service FDI,while the inflow of productive service FDI helps to promote the development of trade in goods.(2)Mechanism analysis reveals that in the short run,these two promote manufacturing productivity mainly through the way of influencing technical progress,and in the long run,trade in goods can play a facilitating effect on manufacturing productivity both through technical progress and through technical efficiency.It can be seen that China,as a developing country,has abundant labor factor resources and the most obvious population advantage,but still does not get rid of the disadvantage of relatively scarce capital and technical factor resources.(3)Both of them can also promote the total factor productivity of manufacturing in the eastern,central and western regions,and the promotion effect in the central region is significantly higher than that in the eastern and western regions.It can be seen that in recent years,China attaches great importance to the development of the central region,and the opening-up strategy has been speeding up,and the implementation of export-oriented strategy has attracted more foreign capital,thus promoting the improvement of total factor productivity of the manufacturing industry in the central region,and its speed of improvement even exceeds that of the eastern region.However,at the same time,the development of manufacturing industry in the western region is relatively backward,and China should increase the development of the western region to promote the development of its manufacturing industry. |
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