| The real estate industry is a capital intensive industry.In order to meet the capital demand,Chinese real estate enterprises rely on the operation mode of high turnover and high leverage for a long time,generally adopt the business strategy of high-speed expansion,and develop with the way of expanding profits by scale.As a result,the real estate industry accumulated a large number of financial bubbles in the long-term development,becoming the biggest "gray rhinoceros" threatening financial security.In order to effectively prevent systemic financial risks in the real estate industry,marked by the "three red lines" financing restrictions on real estate enterprises,the central bank officially launched prudent management of real estate finance in 2020.The "Three red lines" policy requires real estate enterprises to reduce the three debt repayment indicators of "asset-liability ratio after excluding advance payments","net debt ratio" and "cashshort debt ratio" to the red line.Meanwhile,according to the situation of real estate enterprises on the red line,the real estate enterprises are divided into "red,orange,yellow and green" four grades,according to which the annual growth rate of their interest-bearing liabilities is limited.Housing enterprises are facing the internal initiative to "downgrade",the external financing environment deteriorates,its capital chain risk increases.After the implementation of the "three red lines" policy in 2021,the capital chain of real estate enterprises is under great pressure,and the phenomenon of concentrated "thunder" began to appear in the second half of the year.Therefore,macro-prudential policies has become an urgent problem to be solved.By combing the literature,this paper finds that: Domestic and foreign scholars have carried out a large number of theoretical studies on the risk management of the capital chain of housing enterprises.The research focuses on the qualitative elaboration of the current situation of the capital chain break,and analyzes the causes of the capital chain break from the aspects of external macro-control policies,internal business philosophy of housing enterprises,financing channels and capital chain management ability.Quantitative analysis is rarely used,which is in urgent need of further supplement in future research.Therefore,this paper adopts a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis method,introduces the stress test model into the research field of capital chain risk management of real estate enterprises,and selects a representative real estate enterprise-Yango Group as an example to deeply explore the impact of macro-prudential policies on the capital chain of Yango Group,in order to provide reference for real estate enterprises how to prevent the capital chain crisis.This paper first reviews the research status of domestic and foreign scholars on the real estate capital chain and financial risk early warning model,and takes the capital circulation and turnover theory,order financing theory and value chain theory as the theoretical basis of this paper.Secondly,based on the background,objectives and specific contents of macro-prudential policies for real estate finance in 2020,this paper analyzes the impact of macro-prudential policies on the capital chain of the real estate industry.After that,this paper selected Yango Group as an example,in-depth understanding of the development process of Yango,using the Z-value model to conduct a detailed analysis of the financial background of Yango Group capital chain crisis,and further sorted out the process of Yango capital chain crisis.Then,this paper adopts a research method combining qualitative and quantitative analysis.In the qualitative analysis,it innovatively builds a capital chain framework analysis chart based on the corresponding financial statement items of the three links of "fund raising-use-return",and on this basis,analyzes in detail the influence of policies on various capital chain links of Yango Group.On the basis of qualitative analysis,the capital chain pressure test model of Yango Group is constructed by using the Monte Carlo method.The paper tests the pressure capacity and sensitivity of Sunshine City’s capital chain to the policy.It is found that under the current 10% interest-bearing debt growth limit policy,its capital chain is in a high risk area,and the probability of capital chain rupture is as high as 99.02%.Only when the policy is properly relaxed,its capital chain will be in a relatively safe state.Finally,based on the theoretical analysis and macro-prudential policies,suggestions on how to prevent the capital chain crisis and policy formulation standards are put forward.The contributions of this paper are mainly as follows:(1)It can enrich the research on the capital chain risk management of real estate enterprises;(2)The pressure test model is applied to the capital chain risk analysis of real estate enterprises,to enrich the research of the pressure test model has a driving role;(3)It provide some reference ideas for real estate enterprises to prevent the risk of capital chain. |
