The Impact Of "The Belt And Road" Policy Information On Stock Returns

For a long time,the "policy market" effect of China’s stock market is very significant.Policy information has always been one of the important factors affecting the stock price,and the stock market often booms when the country issues important policies and strategies.Since the Belt and Road initiative was put forward in 2013,the government has continuously introduced a large number of relevant policies to convey information to the market and actively strengthened economic cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road.This paper focuses on energy,infrastructure and other industries greatly affected by the The Belt and Road policy,selects concept stocks as the research object,studies the impact of the release of The Belt and Road policy information on the stock returns of relevant listed companies,and further discusses the existence,degree and form of the policy effect.Firstly,on the basis of reading,analysis and evaluation of relevant literature,this paper theoretically analyzes the transmission mechanism of the Belt and Roadpolicy information on stock price.In the short term,the external information has an impact on investors’ psychology,thus changing investors’ psychological expectations and investment decision-making behavior,further affecting the supply and demand relationship of the stock market,and finally causing abnormal fluctuations in the stock price.In the long run,the introduction of policies will provide favorable conditions for the development of enterprises,which will enhance their innovation ability and profitability,enhance their value and raise their stock prices.Then,the influence of The Belt and Road policy information on stock returns in the sample period is comparatively analyzed by using fluctuation point identification method and event study method.The results show that the policy information of The Belt and Road has a significant impact on the stock price return of concept listed companies.In the short term,the policy effect is obvious.In the long run,due to the normalization of favorable policy expectations and the influence of stock market performance,the policy effect of The Belt and Road tends to weaken,and there is a certain degree of "policy fatigue".On this basis,through the classification of the selected samples,further research on the influencing factors of cumulative excess returns,found that there are differences in the policy effect of market differences,capital structure differences,theme differences,company characteristics.Finally,some suggestions are put forward according to the research results.