| At present,our agricultural production has presented complex characteristics,gradually transforming into mechanization and automation upgrading direction.With the repeated emphasis on agriculture in Document No.1 of the Central Committee in recent years,the state’s attention to agricultural production has also continued to deepen,and agricultural production has been favorably developed.However,there are still some problems,such as unreasonable production structure,low agricultural production efficiency,large environmental impact by the natural environment,gradual loss of labor,vulnerability to natural disasters and so on.Therefore,in order to further increase agricultural output and improve the speed of agricultural economic development,it is not advisable to blindly increase the input of production factors.Agricultural insurance is an important financial tool for resisting external risks,transferring economic losses and reasonably avoiding risks in agricultural production.At the same time,affected by the national agricultural insurance subsidy policy,agricultural insurance plays a key role in improving the confidence of farmers to continue to engage in planting.Therefore,it is of great significance to clarify the influence and mechanism of agricultural insurance on agricultural output field and further explore the mediating role of agricultural total factor productivity in this influence mechanism for maintaining the high-quality development of Chinese agricultural economy.To this end,this paper firstly uses the theory of agricultural risk management to analyze the influence path of agricultural insurance on agricultural output from the theoretical level,and takes agricultural total factor productivity as an intermediate variable into the analysis framework to study the intermediary role of agricultural total factor productivity,and builds a theoretical model based on the research hypothesis of this paper.Secondly,Malmquist index was used to measure agricultural total factor productivity of Chinese provinces and municipalities during 2011-2020.The purpose of this study was to assess regional heterogeneity.Finally,based on the panel data from2011 to 2020,the fixed-effect model was used to study the influence mechanism of agricultural insurance on agricultural output,and the intermediary role of agricultural total factor productivity in the two.According to different classification methods,31 provinces were grouped,and the provincial panel data of China was returned to further explore heterogeneity.The results showed that:(1)Agricultural insurance had a significant effect on the improvement of agricultural output,but its effect on different regions was quite different.Among them,the promotion effect of agricultural insurance on the northeast and eastern regions is more significant,especially the northeast region is the most obvious,but the agricultural insurance on the central and western regions of the agricultural output is small,agricultural insurance has a relatively large impact on nongrain main producing areas.(2)Agricultural insurance significantly promoted agricultural total factor productivity,and played a partial intermediary role in the influencing mechanism.Finally,based on the above research results,in order to promote the sustainable development of our agricultural production,this paper puts forward the following suggestions:(1)to promote the popularization of agricultural insurance,and give full play to the role of insurance institutions;(2)Improve farmers’ awareness of risk management,popularize relevant risk prevention and insurance knowledge;(3)Actively increasing total agricultural output.Through various channels of government and farmers to improve productivity,give full play to the intermediary role;(4)Accurately improve relevant policies,implement agricultural premium subsidy policies as accurately as possible by region,and increase support for agricultural insurance in some remote areas and poor areas. |
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