The Influence Of The "Safety Substitution Effect" Of Bank Wealth Management Products On The Risks Of Commercial Banks

In recent years,the bank wealth management products market has developed rapidly.By the end of 2021,the survival scale of bank wealth management products has ranked first among all kinds of capital management products for three consecutive years.Financial products continue to play the advantage of allocating funds,and constantly improve the efficiency of serving economic and social development.From2013 to 2016,the average annual principal loss ratio of Chinese bank wealth management products was less than 0.05%.Intangibly,investors have the expectation of "implicit rigid payment",and bank wealth management products play the "safety substitution effect" of assets to a certain extent.The "implicit rigid payment" behavior keeps most of the risk inside the bank,and this "safety substitution effect" is not safe for the bank.In April 2018,after the promulgation of the new regulations on asset management,the regulatory authorities strictly standardized the issuance and operation of wealth management products of banks,broke the "implicit rigid payment" mode,guaranteed bank wealth management products have gradually withdrawn from the market,and the proportion of net worth products has continuously increased.Therefore,the influence of the "safety substitution effect" of bank wealth management products on the risks of commercial banks will change.Based on the panel data of 124 commercial banks from 2011 to 2021,this paper empirically studies the influence of the "safety substitution effect" of bank wealth management products on the risks of commercial banks and its mechanism of action,and conducts the adjustment effect test and heterogeneity analysis.The conclusions are as follows:(1)When the "safety substitution effect" of bank wealth management products is enhanced,the risks of commercial banks increase.(2)The "safety substitution effect" of bank wealth management products will increase the risks of commercial banks by increasing the leverage of banks and the degree of capital maturity mismatch.(3)From the perspective of regulatory effect,when the capital regulatory pressure is greater or the monetary policy is looser,the "safety substitution effect" of bank wealth management products will significantly increase the risk of commercial banks.(4)In terms of heterogeneity analysis,compared with state-owned banks and joint-stock banks,the "safety substitution effect" of bank wealth management products will significantly increase the risks of urban commercial banks.Compared with listed banks,this effect will significantly increase the risks of non-listed banks.After the promulgation of the new regulations on asset management,the influence of the "safety substitution effect" of bank wealth management products on the risks of commercial banks is no longer obvious.Finally,based on the research conclusions,this paper puts forward relevant suggestions from the perspective of maintaining the stable operation of commercial banks and promoting the healthy development of the financial market.