| Under the background of the steady growth of China's economy for years and the fast accumulation of Chinese people's wealth,asset management industry that takes financial management for clients as its main business is growing continuously,and asset management products are almost everywhere,ranging from currency market to bond market to fixed income market to stock market and to derivatives market.Despite disputes about “offside”and “foot-fault”,it is an unquestioned fact that the asset management industry is flourishing.For one thing,because of the growth of resident wealth and the awakening of financing awareness investors are no longer satisfied with the single savings strategy so that differentiated and diversified asset management products spring up.For another,interest rate marketization and financial disintermediation provide an external environment for the development of asset management industry.With the deepening of market-based reform of interest rate and financial disinte rmediation,commercial banks also hope to alter the situation of heavy reliance on t he interest spreads between deposit and loan and gradually become one of the majo r participants of the asset management industry.Especially in recent years as the ma in capital provider commercial banks gradually lie in the core position of the asset management industry while trust company,securities company and fund subsidiary more play the role of the creator of financial products.By the end of the year 2017,assets under management of all kinds of asset management institutions has reached118 trillion yuan,among which commercial bank's financing products account for 25.1%.However,under disunified regulatory system,development of the asset mana gement industry is accompanied by the doubts from society.Although the model in novation that circumvents policies fights against regulations for a long time,the rigi d payment has never been broken,giving rise to the accumulation of a mass of ris ks while assets under management is growing rapidly.Commercial bank's financing products,as the upstream of asset management chain,become the final transmission link of the risks.In the past years,to standardize commercial bank's financial servic es,regulators have introduced more than 30 policies and documents concerning quali fication admittance,investment orientation,risk management,operational norms,etc.Ho wever,on the whole,it falls short of expected results as not long after the introduction,regulatory policies will be broken by new product model innovation.Just due to the following reasons,recent years asset management industry including commercial banks' financing has become an important financial research field.Under the conce rted efforts of regulators,academia and other circles,new regulations on asset mana gement,i.e.,Guidance on Strengthening Supervision of Non-financial Enterprises' In vestment in Financial Institutions(hereinafter referred to as New Regulations on Ass et Management)jointly issued by People's Bank of China,China Banking and Insura nce Regulatory Commission and China Securities Regulatory Commission,was introdu ced in an attempt to resolve asset management chaos on April 27 th,2018.China Ba nking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Financial Services of Commercial Banks(hereinafter referred to as Financial Management Method)as the supporting implementation rule on Septem ber 28 th,2018.On Dec.2nd,2018 China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commis sion released Measures for the Administration of Subsidiaries of Commercial Banks' Wealth Investment(hereinafter referred to as Administration of Wealth Investment Su bsidiaries)as the supporting system of financial management method.The introducti on of the three documents--New Regulations on Asset Management,Financial Mana gement Method and Administration of Wealth Investment Subsidiaries--means that co mmercial banks' financing services has entered the new era of transition and develo pment.In this context,by referring to the relevant research at home and abroad,this article will first employ threshold regressive model to study,by way of quantitative and qualitative analysis,influence factors of yields of commercial bank's financing products with the change of regulatory policies,and then qualitatively investigate the model innovations of commercial banks' financing products in the context of regulatory policy changes.It must be pointed out here that,from the perspective of logical relationship,product model innovation is also an important factor affecting the yield rate of financial products.However,its particularity lies in that the process of model innovation is often a game with regulatory policies,which has a significant impact on the yield rate in the short term.Therefore,it is necessary to conduct a special and in-depth study on the regulatory policy changes,financial product model innovation of commercial Banks,the game between the two and the impact of innovation on the yield rate from the qualitative and quantitative aspects.Besides,based on the above study effect of model innovations will also be explored by using cross-section data of two periods.Last,the effect and influence of New Regulations on Asset Management in 2018 will also be explored and studied on the basis of innovation models and qualitative analysis.1.Study of influence factors of the yields of commercial banks' financing products under the background of regulatory policy changes.With data of 4 state-owned large banks,5 joint-equity banks,4 city commercial banks and 4 rural commercial banks from Dec.2008 to August 2018 collected as samples,this paper applies time series threshold regression model to study the co-integration relationship among market rate,product maturity,liquidity of financial system and yields of commercial banks' financing products from the perspective of structural variation brought by regulatory policies.Main conclusions are as follows:(1)In policy stableness phase,the yields of both breakeven and non-breakeven wealth investment in state-owned large banks,joint-equity banks,and city commercial banks have consistent co-integration relationships with market rate,product maturity,and liquidity of financial system which also,in general,change in the same direction with the yields of financing products.In policy inhibition phase,variable systems of different types of banks' wealth investment have inconsistent co-integration relationship.The influence of market rate on yields of financing products evidently weakens and logic relations of some models are also not the same with those in theory,which suggests the introduction of major regulatory policies has obvious influence on the logic change of yields of commercial banks' financing products.(2)With other conditions unchanged,major regulatory policies lower the yields of non-breakeven wealth investment in short time(i.e.policy inhibition phase),thus giving rise to the decrease of yields of breakeven wealth investment.This shows that during the time from 2009 to 2018 before New Regulations on Asset Management was introduced,major regulatory policies only have short-term influence and don't have an effect on long-term logic change of yields.(3)Since the data collection lasts till August 2018 and the value of policy in April 2018 and beyond is assigned 0,the results of threshold regression of all types of banks are remarkable,which demonstrates that the inhibition effect of New Regulations on Asset Management in 2018 continues till now.(4)The findings that regulatory policies are directed against breakeven financing products and meanwhile threshold effect exists in yields of breakeven financing products show that policy shock also exerts influence on breakeven financing products.The main reason for this is the driving effect of the yields of non-breakeven wealth investment.There is a long-term and steady co-integration relationship between yields of breakeven wealth investment and that of non-breakeven wealth investment,and also between them exists the short-term transmission effect.Therefore,regulatory policies directed against non-breakeven wealth investment will affect breakeven wealth investment through transmission.(5)In the past nearly ten years,regulatory policies can influence yields of commercial banks' financing products in a short time,but in a long term the influence disappears;market rate,and product maturity are very important determinants.Liquidity of financial system can also influence the rate.2.Study on model innovations of commercial banks' financing products.Product model innovations are accompanied by the game with regulatory policies.Commercial banks break regulatory policies through constant innovations to make financial funds invested in high-yield assets.That's why the effect brought by innovation is so evident.However,because there are no indicators which can be observed directly in innovation itself,the way of measuring the strength of innovation must be found.Fortunately,corresponding measurement methods are found in this paper based on the following two thoughts: one method is based on different types of banks.As mentioned above,the strength of non-breakeven financing product innovations in joint-equity banks,city commercial banks and even rural commercial banks is greater than that in state-owned large banks.If the variables like market rate,product maturity and liquidity of financial system are controlled,then differences in yields suggests discrepancies in innovations in different types of banks;the other method is based on effective phases of different policies.With variables like market rate,product maturity and liquidity of financial system controlled,difference in yields between stableness phase and inhibition phase can show the disparity of innovation strength in two phases.The following are conclusions drawn from the disparity model of innovation effects of different banks' financing products:(1)The strength of commercial banks' financing product innovations is a major variable affecting the yields of financing products.(2)In a short time,strength disparity of different banks' innovations and product maturity are mainly responsible for the change of yields of commercial banks' financing products.Since short-term changes in market rate and liquidity of financial system are limited,these changes will also have a limited influence on the yields of financing products.However,in order to avoid confusions,it's necessary to note that in Chapter 4 where long-term co-integration relationship is studied,there is a great change in market rate and liquidity of financial system,which demonstrates that these two variables are major influence factors of yields of commercial banks' financing products in the long run.(3)Strength of financing product innovations in joint-equity banks,city commercial banks and rural commercial banks are all greater than that in state-owned large banks.In earlier time,strength of innovations in joint-equity banks is the greatest and later gradually surpassed by city commercial banks.Recently the strength or the radicalness of financing product innovations is rated as follows: city commercial banks,joint-equity commercial banks,rural commercial banks and state-owned large banks.Conclusions are reached based on disparity model of financing product innovations in different policy effector phases:(1)As regressive results show,the yields of commercial banks' financing products in policy stableness phase is obviously higher than that in policy inhibition phase,suggesting that model innovations can improve yields of commercial banks' financing products.(2)In most cases,with few exceptions,the pickup in yields brought by further product model innovations can be seen some time after the introduction of some major regulatory policies and changes in values are very significant,with the level of impact on yields of different types of banks at about 0.30%-0.50%.3.Study on New Regulations on Asset Management in 2018.Finally,some core contents of New Regulations on Asset Management and Financial Management Method issued in 2018 are combined in this paper,which specifically refer to breaking rigid payment,cracking nesting multilayer,prohibiting capital pool,at the same time promoting more standardized services,unifying regulatory standards on the same asset management products and preventing and eliminating financial risks;Directed against commercial banks' financing products,Financial management Method put forward the prevention of evasion of policies,shortening of financing chain,intensification of penetrative supervision,and complete disclosure of underlying assets;Subsidiaries for wealth investment become the main carrier of commercial banks' wealth investment services.New Regulations on Asset Management and Financial management Method issued in 2018 are established as the framework for commercial banks to operate wealth investment services.Tests of New regulations based on the disparity model of financing product innovations in different policy effector phases show that with variables like market rate,product maturity and Liquidity of financial system under control,the inhibition effect of New Regulations on yields of financing products of three types of banks--state-owned large banks,city commercial banks and rural commercial banks--is significant and with time goes on(from May 2018 to Sept.2018)the effect grows stronger.After the introduction of the new policy,similar to the previous regulatory policy after a period of time by further mode innovation breakthrough situation did not appear,in the context of systematic reform,is expected to form a new product system.Finally,on the basis of quantitative research and qualitative analysis,this paper puts forward the development direction and policy Suggestions of commercial Banks' financial services transformation.In accordance with the requirements of the new regulations,commercial Banks should not only do a good job in the disposal of existing businesses and orderly connection between new and old products,but also make further sorting and construction in financial product system,investor cultivation,valuation system,risk control system and organizational structure. |
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