Research On The Impact Of Shadow Banking On Commercial Bank Risk Under The Background Of New Asset Management Regulations

In 2018,the "Guiding Opinions on Standardizing the Asset Management Business of Financial Institutions"(hereinafter referred to as the "New Regulations on Asset Management")was officially released,which unified supervision from multiple perspectives such as breaking rigid cashing,strictly regulated shadow banks,restricted the development scale,and compressed the regulatory arbitrage space of financial institutions.According to statistics from the China Shadow Bank Report,since 2008,the size of China’s shadow banks has grown rapidly at a rate of over 20%annually,reaching a peak of 27.03 trillion yuan before the implementation of New Regulations on Asset Management.After the release of the new asset management regulations,through effective rectification of shadow banks,it has decreased to 20.91 trillion yuan by the beginning of 2021.New Regulations on Asset Management were born to unify the regulatory standards for asset management products in the financial system.They are conducive to the standardized and orderly development of commercial banks,deepen the reform of the financial system,reduce the leverage of financial institutions,strengthen and improve financial supervision,and guard against the bottom line of systemic financial risks.The main forms of shadow banking are channel business and interbank business,with relevance,leverage,and risk.In essence,shadow banking is a regulatory arbitrage behavior that causes financial risk accumulation to infect and gradually amplify,and has spillover effects on commercial banks,monetary policy,and even the real economy.At the same time,shadow banking has also increased investment and financing channels for commercial banks,accelerated the conversion rate of bank funds,better met effective financing needs,improved weak links in financial services,and widened financing channels for small and medium-sized enterprises.Therefore,the introduction has brought new opportunities and perspectives to the research of shadow banking.What is the impact of the New Regulations on Asset Management on shadow banking business? What role does it play in the process of influencing commercial bank risk? Through what channels? Has it achieved the goal of reducing systemic risks and preventing the economy from "shifting from real to virtual" ? After the realization of net value management of financial products,how to prevent default risks and improve the regulatory framework? The existing literature has not yet given specific conclusions.In order to verify the impression of shadow banking on commercial bank risks in the context of the New Regulations on Asset Management,this article selected 2514 data from 430 listed commercial banks from 2012 to 2021 as research samples.Firstly,this article mainly combs the domestic and foreign literature on shadow banking,risk factors of commercial banks,and China’s New Regulations on Asset Management;Secondly,this article briefly summarizes the development of shadow banking in China,focusing on the definition,characteristics,development process,and other aspects of shadow banking,and defines the main business content of shadow banking;Then we analyze the mechanism of the shadow banking business on the risk of commercial banks based on the characteristics of the term mismatch,regulatory evasion and high leverage ratio of the shadow banking business,and the change of its impact on the risk of commercial banks after the release of the New Regulations on Asset Management;This paper then conducts an empirical analysis using a fixed effect model to conduct a multiple regression analysis of 2514 annual bank observations from 430 listed commercial banks.The study finds that shadow banking has a significant impact on the risk of commercial banks;After that,based on the heterogeneity analysis of the nature of banks,we studied whether there was any difference in the influence of shadow banking on commercial banks’ risks before and after the issuance of the New Regulations,indicating that the impact of shadow banking on commercial banks’ risks was more significant before the new regulations,and the implementation of the new asset management regulations is conducive to reducing the imitate of shadow banking on banks’ risk bearing level;After analyzing the intermediary mechanism of the two indicators of capital adequacy ratio and deposit/loan ratio,it is concluded that the shadow banking business has significantly increased the risk bearing of banks by reducing the capital adequacy ratio,but the deposit/loan ratio is not statistically significant,and does not significantly affect the risk bearing of commercial banks.The above model excludes the data affected by the epidemic situation in 2020,adopts lag regression to weaken the endogenous problem and passes the robustness test.Finally,because of the empirical study verdict of this article,countermove and recommendations are proposed.Actively conduce the orderly development of shadow banks,and take multiple measures to serve the real economy.Build a sound framework for the financial supervision system and deepen the reform of the financial supervision system.Conduct counter cyclical macro prudential supervision and consolidate the boundary between off-balance-sheet and on-balance-sheet businesses of banks.