| The subprime mortgage crisis has caused a significant impact on the economy and financial systems of numerous countries.The crisis has exposed the limitations of traditional micro prudential and monetary policies in dealing with the potential negative impact of changes in credit and asset prices on financial stability.Following the crisis,our country began to actively investigate the "two-pillar" coordination policy of macroprudential policy and monetary policy,so as to maintain the stability and resilience of the financial system and reduce the impact of the crisis on our economy and financial system.The CPC,in its report to the Nineteenth National Congress,pointed out that it is necessary to establish and perfect the dual-pillar regulatory framework for monetary and macroprudential policies."Prevention and mitigation of major risks" was listed at the top of the three critical battles.Since then,the government has continuously improved relevant policies in a variety of ways,with the goal of preventing and preserving the stability of the financial system.However,the appearance of shadow banking has increased the financial system’s uncertainty,and the continued development of shadow banking poses risks to the stability of our financial markets that cannot be ignored.The term "shadow banking" was first coined by Paul Mc Cully,an American economist,at the Federal Reserve’s 2007 annual meeting.The Financial Regulatory Commission(FSB)pointed out in 2011,"shadow banking is a credit intermediation system outside the traditional banking system.Its existence could lead to problems such as regulatory arbitrage and systemic risk." And defined it as “Non-bank financial intermediation”.The impact of the epidemic has brought uncertainty to economics around the world.The "black swan" and "gray rhinoceros" incidents have come unexpectedly,posing challenges to the financial regulation of all countries.As far as the current economic situation is concerned,how to give full play to the synergistic effect of macro-prudential and monetary policy,and further strengthen the supervision of shadow banks to curb their further expansion is an urgent problem to be solved in the current economic development of China.Under the current economic background,Chinese regulatory departments are constantly strengthening the coordinated use of the dual-pillar framework and introducing new regulations of capital management,but there is less research on the regulatory effect,so it is necessary to strengthen the research on the policy effectiveness.In addition,by studying the impact of the New Regulations on Capital Management issued in 2018 on shadow banking,the paper points out the direction for the continuous improvement of various financial policies in the future.Therefore,this paper selects 54 listed commercial banks as the sample,takes 2005-2020 as the research interval of samples.It covers 6 state-owned commercial banks,10joint-stock commercial banks,28 urban and 10 rural commercial banks.Choosing commercial bank shadow banking business scale as shadow banking agent variable.Then,selecting and constructing monetary policy agent variable and macro-prudential policy index.Using OLS and fixed effect models,this paper explores the effect of monetary policy and macro-prudential policy on shadow banking.By constructing the interaction of these two policies,we study the coordination effectiveness of shadow banks.On this basis,the main body of commercial banks will be divided and the heterogeneity of policy effects will be analyzed in order to provide targeted reference for the regulatory authorities to formulate policies.In addition,the impact of new regulations on the shadow banking in 2018 was studied by using the method of difference of difference.The results suggest that: tight monetary policy and macro-prudential policy both promote shadow banking;Through heterogeneity analysis,it is found that monetary policy has greater effect on rural commercial banks and urban commercial banks,while macro-prudential policy has a stronger impact on state-owned banks and joint-stock banks.According to the research on coordination efficiency,the scale of the shadow banking will be enlarged only if the two policies are tightened.When only one of these policies is tightened,shadow banking will not expand.Compared with using a single policy,it has great advantages,and it can effectively solve the shortage of insufficient or excessive regulation by using a single policy.The introduction of new regulations on capital management in 2018 has significantly inhibited the scale of shadow banking. |
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