The Development Patterns And Influencing Factors Of China’s Real Estate Market From The Perspectives Of Supply And Demand Networks

The healthy and stable development of the real estate market can effectively attract investment,promote consumption,and ensure employment.It is not only an economic but also a livelihood issue that has attracted much attention.Governments at all levels have long formulated and implemented relevant policies to regulate the real estate industry from both the supply and demand sides.Among them,the capital service ability of real estate enterprises and the reasonable housing demand of consumers are widely concerned by scholars and policymakers.With the increasing logic turn from“space of places” into “space of flows” in urban development,the research of real estate market is correspondingly undergoing a transformation from attribute thinking to network thinking.Against this backdrop,this paper employed the network paradigm and constructed a physical network of real estate enterprises’ capital service and a virtual network of consumers’ attention on real estate market based on the headquarterbranch data of the TOP 200 real estate enterprises and intercity Baidu attention data in the field of real estate market in 2021,to somewhat reflect the urban real estate capital service capability on the supply side and the urban residents’ potential housing demand on the demand side.This paper then explored the development pattern and influencing factors of China’s real estate market from the dual-flow perspectives through the network analysis and the quadratic assignment procedure of multiple regressions,aiming to provide references for the positive interaction and the win-win development of the real estate market among regions and cities.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)In terms of the urban real estate capital service capability on the supply side,the intercity real estate capital flows are concentrated in Shanghai,Beijing,Guangzhou,Shenzhen,Chengdu,etc.,forming a trans-regional community,while the real estate resource flows in other communities are geographically proximate and bounded by the scope of urban agglomerations.The real estate capital service capability of different regions varies greatly.The real estate resources of the Yangtze River Delta are relatively abundant and evenly distributed,suggesting more polycentric development,whereas the siphoning effect is serious in urban agglomerations of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Chengdu-Chongqing,with the real estate capital being polarized in the primary cities.(2)In terms of the urban residents’ potential housing demand on the demand side,the intercity real estate demand flows are concentrated in Beijing,Shanghai,Hangzhou,Shenzhen,Guangzhou,Chengdu,etc.The intercity real estate market attention flows do not form a global community but are composed of several geographically adjacent communities whose scopes are largely consistent with urban agglomerations.The Yangtze River Delta is a hot region drawing the most attention from other cities on the real estate market,and presents a tendency of polycentric and synergistic development.(3)In terms of the network comparison between the supply and demand sides,the distribution of intercity real estate capital flows is more polarized than that of the demand flows,while the geographical characteristics of the demand flows are more obvious than that of the capital flows.Based on both average values of capital flow intensity and demand flow intensity,cities can be divided into four categories: the double-high cities with high real estate capital supply and high potential demand are basically cities with high administrative levels;double-low cities are geographically peripheral or economically underdeveloped.Cities with low real estate capital supply but high potential demand include Tangshan,Wuhu,and Baoding,etc.,while cities with high real estate capital supply but low potential demand are located in Shaoxing,Zhenjiang,and Taizhou,etc.(4)In terms of influencing factors of the intercity capital flows and demand flows,the development patterns of China’s real estate market are affected by urban fundamentals such as GDP per capita,urbanization rate and industrial structure upgrading,multi-dimensional proximities such as organization,institution,and geography,as well as distinctive factors of real estate investment and consumption.The distinctive factors affecting the intercity real estate capital flows include the amount of real estate investment,the area of commercial housing sales,and the land transfer fee,while the distinctive factors affecting the intercity real estate demand flows are the Internet availability rate,second-hand housing price,and livable competitiveness index.