Research On Supply Chain Finance Credit Risk Of Ping An Bank Based On KMV Model

With the rapid development of technology finance,supply chain finance has been recognized by more members of the public for its safer transaction data,easier risk control and higher operational efficiency.The supply chain finance business has broad prospects and is very beneficial to both enterprises and banks.Supply chain finance brings new sources of income to commercial banks.At the same time,the gradual increase of supply chain finance business volume has also gradually generated new risks.This also brings new challenges for commercial banks to control the credit risk of supply chain finance.At present,China is in the new normal stage of economic development.Under the background of increasing downward pressure on the macro economy,especially the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic in recent years,the structure of many real industries has changed.Some companies have fallen into serious business crisis in this epidemic,and a large number of credit defaults have occurred,which has a serious impact on the safety and stability of the financial industry.At the same time,China’s financial market is increasingly complex,the competition in the financial market is more intense,and the credit risk is increasingly out of control.Ping An Bank is one of the first banks in China to conduct supply chain finance.However,in the process of the rapid development of supply chain finance,the relevance of supply chain will make the risk in the supply chain pass in the form of chain.This has brought great risks to the development of banks,and there is an urgent need for a comprehensive and effective credit risk assessment system to ensure the healthy and stable development of the banking industry.Therefore,in order to effectively reduce the occurrence of credit risk events,the econometric model should be used to measure risks more accurately and do a good job in risk prediction,estimation,prevention and diversification.To ensure the stability of our country’s financial system.Taking Ping An Bank as an example,this thesis studies the credit risk of supply chain finance of Ping An Bank by using quantitative analysis.Firstly,this thesis reviews the research of domestic and foreign scholars on commercial banks’ impact on supply chain finance and credit risk of supply chain finance.It finds out the areas that need to be improved,which are regarded as the innovation points of this thesis,and then constructs the research framework and research methods on this basis.Secondly,the thesis introduces the case of Ping An Bank’s supply chain finance,and introduces Ping An Bank from two aspects: basic information and supply chain finance model.Then the thesis reviews the development process of supply chain finance of Ping An Bank.Then we analyze the sources of credit risks in supply chain finance of Ping An Bank from three aspects: customer types,operating conditions and contract performance.Thirdly,this thesis evaluates the credit risk of supply chain finance of Ping An Bank,and uses the KMV model to measure the credit risk of core enterprises in the supply chain finance business of Ping An Bank.Then,by analyzing the credit risk of supply chain finance of Ping An Bank,we find that customers in high-risk industries,unreasonable operation of enterprises,and high default rate of enterprises will lead to the increase of credit risk of supply chain finance of Ping An Bank.Finally,conclusions and suggestions.Suggestions were provided to Ping An Bank from three aspects: early selection,process supervision,and communication and feedback.