| The report to the 20 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that many major problems must be solved to prevent financial risks,and the financial stability guarantee system must be strengthened to prevent systemic risks.The2022 Central Economic Work Conference also called for preventing and defusing financial risks,consolidating the responsibilities of all parties,and preventing regional and systemic financial risks.It can be seen that continuing to prevent and deal with risks in the economic and financial fields is still the top priority of economic work in the future.The risk of "deserting from real to virtual" caused by the widening spread between virtual economy and real economy is a major problem facing the macro and micro level economy.It is manifested by the capital flowing into virtual domain and the industry hollowing out of real enterprise at the macro level,which leads to the virtual economy failing to serve for the real economy.The VAT rebate is a key measure to reduce the tax burden of enterprises and stabilize the macroeconomic market.It is also the highlight of the new combined tax support policy in 2022,and its positive policy effect in financial stability should be paid full attention to.Therefore,whether the VAT rebate policy can restrain the risk of real enterprises from real to virtual is not only related to the realization of high-quality development of enterprises,but also related to the stable and sustainable development of macro-economy.Reasonable evaluation of the effectiveness of the VAT rebate policy is also an important starting point to better optimize and adjust the VAT reform policy.So,can the cash flow brought by the VAT rebate policy promote the development of the enterprise’s main business and restrain it from moving from real to virtual?This paper selected the data of China’s A-share non-financial listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from the first quarter of 2016 to the first quarter of 2019,based on the natural experiment of the introduction of Finance and Taxation Document No.70[ 2018 ],built A differential model to investigate how the VAT tax rebate policy affects the real enterprises to shift from real to virtual,and to clarify the mechanism of action between the two and the relationship under different situations.The results of this paper show that,as an important measure of the current "tax reduction and fee reduction" policy,VAT rebate can effectively prevent enterprises from moving from real to virtual.According to the mechanism test,the VAT tax rebate policy inhibits real enterprises from moving from real to virtual through two paths: "cash flow effect" and "main business investment effect".At the same time,property nature,external financing dependence degree,inclusive finance degree,legal environment and the competitiveness heterogeneity of the industry will have an impact on the effect of the VAT rebate policy on the governance of enterprises from real to virtual.The research conclusions provide necessary empirical evidence for further optimizing VAT reduction policies,preventing and defusing risks from real to virtual at the micro level,and realizing the goals of "six stability" and "six guarantees".The research contribution of this paper is as follows:(1)From the new perspective of the policy of VAT retention against tax refund,it examines the measures to treat real enterprises from real to virtual,which enriches the research on the influencing factors of real enterprises from real to virtual,and expands the research on the economic consequences of the policy of VAT retention against tax refund.(2)The paper explores two ways for the VAT retention rebate policy to restrain the degree of real enterprises from real to virtual through "cash flow effect" and "main business investment effect",which helps to reveal the deeper logic of the relationship between VAT retention rebate and real enterprises from real to virtual.(3)By examining the heterogeneity of the influences of different internal and external environments on the relationship between VAT retention and tax rebate and the relationship between real and virtual,the paper provides micro-level empirical evidence for the government departments to propose reasonable and effective regulation policies for enterprises from a more accurate perspective.(4)This paper can provide evidence at the micro level for the VAT rebate policy to control the transition from real to virtual and improve the structural imbalance between the real economy and the virtual economy. |