| As an important part of intermediate investment in manufacturing industry,digital service has become a key factor affecting the serviceability of manufacturing industry.But at the same time,the number and style of measures to restrict digital trade are increasing.This leads to the research topic of this paper: What is the impact of digital trade restrictive measures on manufacturing services? Based on this,the article selects data from 45 countries from 2014 to 2018 for empirical analysis.This paper uses the restrictive index of digital service trade published by OECD as an indicator to measure the degree of restriction of digital trade,and calculates the service level of 17 manufacturing industries in each sample country using the complete consumption coefficient method based on the OECD-ICIO database.On this basis,empirical analysis is conducted.The benchmark results show that the restrictive measures of digital trade will have significant negative effects on the development of manufacturing services,and the results are still stable after a series of tests.Heterogeneity research found that the negative impact of digital trade restrictive measures on the level of manufacturing services has huge differences in policy categories,industry types and national nature.In the subsequent mechanism test,it is shown that trade cost,allocation effect and technology effect are intermediary variables that play an intermediate role.The research conclusion provides an empirical basis for China to better grasp the balance between digital trade restrictions and the development of manufacturing services.The specific research steps of the article include: First,this paper puts forward the purpose,significance,research methods,innovation and shortcomings of the article based on the overall situation of the current manufacturing industry and digital trade development.Secondly,it summarizes the relevant research literature of the current scholars on manufacturing service,including the concept of manufacturing service,measurement methods and scholars’ research perspectives on manufacturing service.At the same time,it expounds the specific classification of the restrictive measures of digital trade and the measurement indicators of the restrictive measures of digital trade,as well as the current research literature related to the measures of restricting digital trade and the development of manufacturing services,which provides a theoretical basis for the research topic of this paper,provides a practical research direction for this paper,and thus draws the research topic of this paper.Thirdly,study the theoretical mechanism of digital trade restrictive measures on manufacturing service.This paper discusses in detail how the restrictive measures of digital trade affect the serviceability of manufacturing industry.Based on the theoretical analysis,it puts forward the hypothesis that the technical effect,the allocation effect and the trade cost effect may be the intermediate variables that play the role of transmission.Then,the "Digital Service Trade Restriction Index"(DSTRI)developed by the OECD(Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development)and its sub-policy areas are used to systematically describe the extent to which economies restrict digital trade,and then the measured level of manufacturing services is used to construct a regression model to carry out regression analysis on the two and carry out robustness test,heterogeneity test and mechanism test,which improves the reliability of the conclusions of the article.Finally,based on the results of theoretical inference and empirical test,we draw conclusions and give corresponding policy recommendations. |
