The Measurement Of Consumption Potential From The Perspective Of Domestic Circulation

At present,the domestic and international development environment is complex and changeable.at this critical juncture,the CPC Central Committee proposes to speed up the construction of a new development pattern with the domestic great cycle as the main body and the domestic and international double cycles promote each other.With the interweaving of the world epidemic situation and the changes in the past hundred years,the pattern of the world economic cycle has been deeply adjusted,and China has focused on the overall situation and the long term.We have formulated and implemented a series of policies and measures on speeding up the construction of a national unified market,further releasing consumption potential and promoting the sustainable recovery of consumption.The development trend of "based on domestic demand and smooth circulation" is increasingly apparent,and the lasting and fundamental pulling effect of consumption on economic growth is becoming more and more powerful.The willingness to upgrade consumer demand in China’s super-large-scale market is increasing with the times.How to better release the consumption potential and lead the new trend of diversified,personalized and quality consumption has become a realistic topic that urgently needs to be studied.Based on the multi-regional input-output model,this paper measures the consumption potential and development trend of 31 provinces,42 departments and China from 2012 to2022 by using the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis,theoretical and empirical analysis.the ability to release consumption potential and promote domestic circulation to stimulate consumption growth is measured,and the influencing factors of consumption potential imbalance are analyzed.The main results show that:(1)From a regional point of view,the consumption potential of the eastern and central provinces in China is much higher than that of the western provinces.From the perspective of sectors,the consumption potential of transportation,warehousing and postal services,agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishing products and services,real estate,textiles,clothing,shoes,hats,leather,down and their products is higher than that of other sectors.From the perspective of the whole country,the consumption potential of our country shows U-shaped development from 2012 to 2022.Among them,2012-2016 is on the left side of the U-shaped shape,reaching a trough in 2016,and 2017-2022 is located on the right side of the U-shaped shape,generally rising steadily,and fluctuating slightly in2020 and 2022.The consumption potential ranges of China from 2017 to 2022 are(3.2%,16.8%),(4.4%,16.8%),(5.8%,16.8%),(4.6%,16.8%),(7.8%,16.8%)and(3.9%,16.8%)respectively.(2)(Capital Formation + Net Exports)each additional unit can increase the national GDP by 1.86 units and the final consumer expenditure by 0.86 units.(3)Residents’ consumption potential has crowding-out effect on government consumption potential,while rural residents’ consumption potential has crowding-in effect on urban residents’ consumption potential.Therefore,in order to fully release the consumption potential of urban residents,it is necessary to control government consumption,encourage rural residents’ consumption,and then promote the increase of final consumer expenditure.(4)Unleashing the consumption potential and promoting the domestic circulation can increase China’s final consumption expenditure by 274 million yuan and the consumption potential by 3.31%.The main innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)With the help of multi-regional input-output technology,the perspective of domestic large cycle is selected,and the method of measuring consumption potential is given,which is convenient to sort out the domestic large cycle complex economic system.(2)Based on the GDP expenditure method,this paper constructs the input-output model of final consumption expenditure and(Capital Formation + Net Export),which provides theoretical support for the decision to turn some exported goods and services into domestic demand and stimulate consumption growth.(3)This paper presents a method of using input-output technology to measure the effect of consumption potential.According to the research results,this paper puts forward some ways to release the consumption potential and promote the domestic circulation.The theoretical research of this paper can broaden the extension of consumer economics,and empirical research provides a certain reference value for government decision-making.