| Developing the pension industry is one of the important strategies to cope with the aging society and promote the transformation of economic growth mode.As one of the core industries of the pension industry,the pension insurance industry plays an indelible role in the development of the pension industry.China’s current social endowment insurance includes urban employee endowment insurance and urban and rural resident endowment insurance.In order to conduct an in-depth analysis of the supply and demand of the endowment insurance industry,this study introduces relevant indicators of the endowment insurance replacement rate,establishes an actuarial model of the endowment insurance,and calculates the replacement rate of the urban employee endowment insurance and urban and rural resident endowment insurance.Taking whether the pension replacement rate exceeds 100% as the judgment basis of supply and demand,accurately judge the supply and demand status quo of China’s pension insurance industry,conduct supply and demand analysis,comprehensively reflect the comparison of personal income before and after retirement under different insurance standards,and quantify the gap between supply and demand.From the perspective of national overall planning,provincial pension insurance for urban workers and old-age insurance for urban and rural residents,this paper studies the following contents:(1)To measure the pension replacement rate of "old,middle and new" urban workers in the country whose pension starts from 2004-2021 and 2032-2036,and whose contribution period is 15-40 years;Secondly,the pension replacement rates of "old people","people" and "new people" among urban workers in each province whose starting years are 2004-2005,2013-2014,2032-2033 and contribution years are20 years and 35 years respectively are measured,and the sensitivity analysis is carried out on the starting years and contribution years.(2)The national resident pension replacement rate,which measures the contribution period of 15-44 years and the contribution grade of 100-2,000 yuan respectively,is measured by urban and rural areas respectively,with 2009 and 2014 as the base years for rural residents and 2011 and 2014 as the base years for urban residents;Secondly,the pension replacement rate for urban and rural residents in different provinces with 20 and 35 years of contribution period is measured.The payment grades of 200,400 and 900 yuan for rural residents and 300,400,800 and 900 yuan for urban residents are set,and the sensitivity analysis is carried out for the payment grades and payment period.(3)The urban employee pension insurance and urban and rural residents pension insurance are compared and analyzed horizontally and vertically.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The pension supply level of "people" is generally higher than that of "new people" and "old people",and the pension replacement rate of this group is more sensitive to the contribution years;(2)For the underdeveloped provinces,the increase of the contribution period makes the improvement of the urban workers’ pension replacement rate more obvious;(3)The level of the replacement rate changes in the same direction as the payment grade and payment period,and the replacement rate of the pension insurance with 2014 as the base year is low;(4)The pension replacement rate of urban residents is basically lower than that of rural residents;(5)The contribution level is less sensitive to the pension replacement rate.Therefore,the state should follow the trend,adhere to the principle of "pay more and get more,pay more for a long time",steadily improve the living standards of retirees,increase the supply of "old and new" pensions,establish and improve the pension adjustment mechanism as soon as possible,set the reference standard of wage growth rate and personal account accounting interest rate,adjust income distribution,and optimize the supply and demand structure of pension insurance.It plays an indelible role in improving our country’s social security system. |
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