Predicting The Transmission Structure Of Intergenerational Income Inequality And Its Impact Effects In China

At present,the contradiction between people’s growing need for a better life and unbalanced and insufficient development has become the main contradiction in Chinese society.With the successful achievement of the first century goal,"solidly promoting common prosperity" has become the goal of China’s next stage of struggle.However,the high income inequality and the intergenerational inheritance of income distribution pattern coexist in China,behind which the inequality of opportunity caused by the difference of the father’s generation is profoundly affecting the income and income distribution of the children,and seriously hindering the smooth promotion of common prosperity.The inequality of opportunity caused by the paternal factor makes the individual income of the offspring not depend entirely on the difference of their own factors,so that the income inequality formed not only cannot stimulate the enthusiasm of workers to produce,but also will have a negative impact on the producers and stimulate social conflicts,and the continuous transmission of this income inequality between generations will weaken the policy effect related to common prosperity and make the policy effect greatly reduced.Therefore,to ensure the smooth promotion of common prosperity,it is necessary to weaken the negative effects of the transmission of intergenerational income inequality,to figure out how the structure of the transmission of intergenerational income inequality will change in the future,and how large the effect of the inequality of opportunity of the father on the income of the children in the transmission of intergenerational income inequality is.Based on the above-mentioned background and problems,this paper explores the transmission of intergenerational income inequality in detail from the following aspects:first,the transmission of intergenerational income inequality perspective makes a more detailed division of the intergenerational income mobility camp,further subdivides the expanded group of intergenerational income inequality into the expanded group(upward)and the expanded group(downward),subdivides the shrinking group into the shrinking group(upward)and the shrinking group(downward),and subdivides the shrinking group into the shrinking group(upward)and the shrinking group(downward).,shrinkage group(downward),and subdivide the variation group into variation group(upward)and variation group(downward),which make a full deconstruction of the structure of intergenerational income inequality transmission.Second,on this basis,asymmetric logratio forecasting,gray forecasting and combination forecasting methods are introduced to empirically analyze the overall variation and internal structural changes of intergenerational income inequality in China,and to forecast the internal structural changes of intergenerational income inequality in China.Thirdly,based on the transmission theory of intergenerational income inequality,an index of the effect of intergenerational income inequality is constructed by drawing on the decomposition method of opportunity inequality based on the joint cubic equation.The index is also used to analyze the direct and full impact effects of inequality of opportunity caused by differences in paternal factors on children’s income.It is found that,first,in the transmission of intergenerational income inequality,the expansion group(upward)and the contraction group(downward)contribute the most to the transmission of intergenerational income inequality and are the key groups that cause the transmission of intergenerational income inequality.Second,there is an upward trend in the effect of inequality of opportunity due to paternal factors on children’s income,both in direct and full effects,and this effect is mainly realized through indirect effects.In the comparison between the expanded group and the reduced group,the impact of opportunity inequality caused by differences in paternal factors on the expanded group of intergenerational income inequality is significantly larger than the impact on the reduced group of intergenerational income inequality,which indicates that the opportunity inequality formed by differences in paternal factors is acting on the continuation of intergenerational income inequality through indirect influence,and the degree of influence is increasing.Third,overall,the future mobility of middle and upper income classes is an important factor affecting the change of intergenerational income inequality,but the situation varies by urban and rural areas and by regions.By region,the movement of high-income class to middle-income class in the eastern region may dominate the change of intergenerational income inequality in the future,while the downward movement of high-income class in the western region will be more prominent,and the upward movement of high-income class and low-income class in the central region will be the same in the future.By urban and rural areas,the future changes of the rich class in urban areas are the main force leading to their intergenerational income inequality changes,while in rural areas,the contribution of upward mobility of the shrinking group to their intergenerational income inequality will occupy the dominant role.Based on the results of the above analysis,this paper argues that the smooth promotion of common wealth can be achieved by(1)eliminating employment discrimination and ensuring fair employment opportunities.(2)Increase investment in education and improve education policies.(3)Strengthening the central and western regions to narrow the gap with the eastern regions.(4)Further improve the taxation system.