Research On The Impact Of Chinese Monetary Policy On Commercial Banks’ Risk-taking

The 2008 financial crisis seriously damaged the global economy.Researchers pointed out that this phenomenon may be caused by excessive risk-taking by banks,and proposed a new monetary policy transmission route--banks’ risk-taking channel.When monetary authorities implement different monetary policies,banks’ risk-taking behaviors will be affected differently.In 2013,the People’s Bank of China established the structural monetary policy in order to better regulate the economy.Due to the short implementation time of this type of monetary policy,the research on the impact of banks’ risk-taking is not perfect.Therefore,it is of great significance to add structural monetary policy tools to the research on the impact of monetary policy on banks’ risktaking.This paper mainly studies the effects of price,quantitative and structural monetary policy tools on banks’ risk-taking behavior.This paper first reviews the domestic and foreign literature on the factors affecting banks’ risk and monetary policy affecting banks’ risk-taking,and then introduces the measurement of banks’ risk-taking,the mechanism and influencing factors of monetary policy affecting banks’ risk-taking,and then introduces the development process of monetary policy and the current situation of banks’ risk.Finally,based on the above analysis,three hypotheses are proposed and three corresponding models are designed.This paper selects the data of 20 commercial banks from 2008 to 2021,uses the system GMM method,selects appropriate proxy variables,makes an empirical analysis of panel data,and draws the following conclusions: First,the impact of Chinese monetary policy on banks’ risk-taking is significant.Loose price and quantitative monetary policy will increase banks’ risk-taking,while loose structural monetary policy will reduce the risktaking of commercial banks.Second,the impact of monetary policy on banks’ risktaking is heterogeneous.Large banks’ risk-taking is less affected by monetary policy,while small banks’ risk-taking is more affected by monetary policy.Third,banks’ risktaking is affected by business cycle,and different monetary policy cycles have different impacts on banks’ risk-taking.Finally,based on the analysis,this paper puts forward relevant suggestions from the two aspects of commercial banks and central banks.As for commercial banks,they should have a deep understanding of monetary policies,make timely adjustments to cope with the implementation of different monetary policies,improve their risk prevention and control ability,carry out business innovation,and promote structural upgrading and transformation.Central banks should take financial stability into account when making monetary policies,flexibly use a variety of monetary policy tools,and coordinate monetary policies with macro-prudential policies.