The Impact Of China's Monetary Policy On The Risk-taking Of Commercial Banks

Many scholars attribute the global financial crisis that began in 2008 with the subprime crisis of the United States to the long-term low interest rate monetary policy of the United States government.They believe that it is precisely because of this monetary policy that the commercial banks in the United States continue to expand the scale of subprime loans,which eventually leads to the occurrence of the crisis.Therefore,some scholars began to put forward a new transmission channel of monetary policy-bank risk-taking transmission channel.The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of China's monetary policy on the risk-taking of commercial banks,and further study whether the impact is heterogeneous,affected by the economic cycle,and asymmetric.First of all,this paper reviews the research status of risk-taking transmission channels at home and abroad,then summarizes the relevant theoretical basis,summarizes four hypotheses to be tested by empirical research,and designs four corresponding empirical models.Specifically,this paper selects the data of 21 commercial banks in China from 2007 to 2018,and uses the GMM estimation method to test the above four models respectively.The test results are as follows: there is a significant positive correlation between the degree of monetary policy easing in China and the risk-taking level of commercial banks,that is,loose monetary policy will increase the risk-taking level of commercial banks;The risk-taking effect of monetary policy on commercial banks is influenced by the micro variables of banks,that is,the channel has heterogeneity;The impact of China's monetary policy on the risk-taking of commercial banks is affected by the economic cycle,but different monetary policies are affected by different economic cycles;The impact of China's monetary policy on commercial banks is asymmetric,but the asymmetry of different monetary policies is also different.Finally,this paper provides corresponding policy suggestions for monetary policy authorities,banking regulatory authorities and commercial banks.This paper comprehensively analyzes the impact of monetary policy on the risktaking of China's commercial banks,and provides theoretical and empirical support for the central bank to formulate and implement monetary policy and commercial banks to manage risk-taking.