Study On The Linkage Between Gold And Oil Price Of Commodities

This paper mainly studies the commodity gold price and the price of crude oil correlation, through monetary policy factors, macroeconomic factors, structural theory of rights, inflation, the China factor aspects introduces about the basic theory of commodity price fluctuations, and systematically describes the overall price of commodities in recent years, the international gold price, international crude oil price movements, through the international gold and crude oil price data in nearly three years as a variable for empirical research, this paper through the parameters of stability of stability inspection found that the parameters in the model, so we parameters for construction of cointegration test and error correction model ecm analysis between January 2012 and June 2012, the internal connection of the gold price and the price of crude oil, the empirical results show that:(1) the price of gold is there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the price of crude oil;(2) the changes in the price of gold will cause changes in the price of crude oil;(3) the price of gold and crude oil prices in the long term is a kind of positive change, but the positive change in the short term is not as good as clear for a long time. So, China as a commodities gold and oil demand powers should grasp the two prices long-term internal correlation, have the foresight to shift its monetary policy and fiscal policy,establishing and perfecting the commodity strategic resource reserve system, and accelerate the construction of commodity futures market, make our country at the time of commodity price volatility risk aversion.