Enterprise Value Assessment Of Express Delivery Industry Using Scenario Analysis Method

The express delivery industry has developed rapidly for more than ten years due to the development of e-commerce.However,there are relatively few existing research on the value of express delivery companies in China.Moreover,the development of express delivery companies will enter a new stage,that is a high-quality development stage.At the same time,it is extremely important to study the value of express delivery enterprises.This paper first sorts out the different application fields of different evaluation methods at home and abroad,and after a lot of reading,the characteristics of the express delivery industry were analyzed and summarized.Finally,it was concluded that the two-stage income method is the most suitable for evaluating express delivery companies.Based on FCFF model theory,scenario analysis is introduced into revenue method,combined with YTO Express evaluation case analysis,and the influence of scenario analysis on enterprise value before and after the introduction is compared.In the process of introduction of scenario analysis,historical financial data and expert opinions are used to calculate the probability of different scenarios for the initial assignment of scenarios,and the application probability of each scenario is obtained by modifying the initial probability through cross influence analysis.This process greatly reduces the subjectivity and contingency of the initial assignment and makes the scenario probability more scientific.By comparing the enterprise values before and after introducing scenario analysis into FCFF model,the conclusions of this paper are summarized as follows:(1)Using the FCFF model evaluation,the value of YTO Express on the assessment base date was63.263 billion yuan,and the scenario analysis method was introduced into the FCFF model and the value of YTO Express on the assessment base date was 61.661 billion yuan,a difference of 1.602 billion yuan,a decrease of 2.53%.The enterprise value obtained after the introduction of scenario analysis method is closer to the real value of the enterprise.(2)This paper concludes that the occurrence probability of high,medium and low scenarios is 42.30%,54.43% and 3.27% respectively.The probability of each scenario is in line with the actual development of the enterprise.By introducing scenario analysis into FCFF model,the future environment of enterprises can be considered more comprehensively,providing a new way of thinking for enterprise value assessment,and the valuation obtained can better reflect the intrinsic value of enterprises.(3)Consider the particularity of enterprise nature when determining the driving factors of enterprise value.The express delivery industry is an emerging tertiary industry.In addition to key general driving factors such as macroeconomic environment and industry policies,service quality is a key factor for express delivery enterprises to provide personalized services and form core competitiveness.