Research On The Application Of Scenario Analysis Method In Valuation Of Periodic Company Income Method

In the face of periodic valuation of the company this problem and hot,the income method is the widely used method of periodic valuation of the company,but the development of macro economy and there is uncertainty,this uncertainty will be cyclical earnings estimate results directly or indirectly,in order to make periodic earnings estimate results the introduction of more objective and reasonable scenario analysis.In the process of studying how the scenario analysis method is applied to periodic earnings valuation method,this paper adopts literature review,theoretical analysis,summarization,probability and statistics,comparative analysis,case analysis,chart analysis method and means.At present,some domestic scholars use the income approach to assess the cyclical company using scenario analysis,but the scenario analysis method in which only serves as a supplementary part of analysis of innovation or case,a scenario analysis method in the application of species specific research model in the valuation of income method and detailed steps and other aspects is not rich.Based on the analysis of value evaluation method of periodic company and the applicability and limitations of the analysis of income method,inductive scenario analysis in periodic earnings method(enterprise discounted free cash flow method as an example)in the use of several different valuation ideas and their differences,a comparative summary of the characteristics and applicability of various methods of income method the improved model;and find out the scenario analysis method is applied to periodic earnings estimate scenario analysis in the process of problems--Part periodic earnings valuation method and scenario probability scenarios in the future construction.Through this study,the following conclusions: firstly,the scenario analysis method and the concrete application steps of cyclical company income approach valuation based on scenario construction,scene probability determination,scenario analysis,content measurement under each scenario by scenario probabilities of income,the income approach valuation model is modified and calculated cyclical company valuation results a total of five steps;secondly,the improved cyclical company income approach valuation model respectively,using scenario probabilities respectively on the income weighted sum for each scenario of the enterprise value weighted two ways(two stage cash flow model in 4 ways);again,construct specific situations need the proper choice the important influencing factors and key external driving force and on the basis of which scenario framework,set reasonable scenario number and division of scene content in the scene under the framework;Finally,the probability of cyclical earnings estimate of future scenarios can be based on the current economic point,based on historical information,using three methods to determine the probability tree.