Spatial Spillover And Threshold Effect Of Agricultural Insurance Poverty Reduction From The Perspective Of Relative Poverty

On November 29,2015,the Central Committee of the Party clearly put forward a decision to win the fight against poverty,and five years later,on November 23,2020,more than 800 state-level poverty-stricken counties nationwide were all removed,representing a comprehensive victory in China’s fight to fight poverty,solve the absolute poverty problem that has plagued China’s development for decades,and laying an important foundation for the realization of the rural revitalization strategy.From all-round moderate prosperity to poverty alleviation,China’s socialist cause has continuously made great progress.However,at present,the income gap between China’s urban and rural dwellers,which directly polarized the gap between rich and poor,could not be ignored,affecting the realization of the goal of common prosperity.And,despite the eradication of absolute poverty,relative poverty will persist for a good while,and the focus now is on how to prevent people who have been lifted out of poverty from falling back into poverty and ensure a long-term stable source of income for low-income groups.Agriculture is an important source of income for rural residents,and agricultural insurance plays an irreplaceable role in life and agricultural production,which can effectively reduce the impact of weather disasters and price fluctuations on the production and price of agricultural products,and prevent farmers from returning to poverty due to disasters.According to the statistics of the Ministry of Emergency Situations,in 2020,the area of crops affected by the disaster in the country reached 19,957.7 thousand hectares,of which 2,706.1 thousand hectares were lost;direct economic losses reached 370.15 billion yuan,which is 5.16% of the total value of agricultural production for the year.Through the functions of risk transfer and economic compensation,agricultural insurance can ensure the steady increase of agricultural product output,stabilize farmers’ income sources,and at the same time encourage farmers to fully devote themselves to agricultural production and operation activities,increase farmers’ marginal income,and achieve efficient and precise poverty alleviation.The paper combs the development process and current situation of Chinese agricultural insurance and relative poverty,and explains the relationship between agricultural insurance and poverty alleviation through theoretical mechanisms.The empirical analysis part selects the spatial panel data of 31 provinces and regions from 2014 to 2020.The depth of agricultural insurance was used as the core explanatory variable to measure the development level of agricultural insurance,and the weighted Engel coefficient was used as the benchmark to measure the relative poverty level,and a spatial panel model was established to test the spatial spillover effect of agricultural insurance poverty reduction.Most of the existing literature research the linear relationship between development of agricultural insurance and the occurrence of poverty,and the paper selects the per capita disposable income of rural people as the threshold variable on this basis,and further establishes panel threshold model to verify the nonlinear effect of agricultural insurance on occurrence of poverty.Finally,the mediating impact of agricultural insurance to alleviate relative poverty through the mechanism of improving income distribution is tested.The empirical results verify that there have obvious spatial spillover effect on the development level and relative poverty degree of agricultural insurance in China,and agricultural insurance in a certain place can reduce the incidence of local relative poverty while accompanying the trend of spatial agglomeration,and there is also an obvious poverty reduction effect in its neighboring areas.At the same time,under different levels of economic development,the effect of agricultural insurance on poverty reduction is also different,which has an obvious threshold effect.Finally,agricultural insurance can alleviate poverty by expanding the scale of agricultural industries and improving income distribution.Based on the theoretical elaboration and empirical analysis results,the paper gives a few of relevant countermeasures and suggestions for China’s agricultural insurance poverty alleviation work,innovates the agricultural insurance subsidy system,improves the agricultural insurance service capacity,and actively explores a new insurance poverty alleviation model.