Research On Personal Credit Risk Warning And Coping Strategies Of L Commercial Bank

In recent years,L Commercial Bank has continuously increased its support for the real economy,and the scale of personal loans has grown rapidly,with an increasing coverage of customer groups.For commercial banks,the external business environment,especially since the outbreak of the "epidemic",has become increasingly complex.The personal loan business of commercial banks not only needs to continue to grow in scale,but also needs to focus on the quality of business development and maintain sustainable and stable development momentum.At present,the personal loan business of commercial banks is generally characterized by small amounts and dispersed risks.Against the backdrop of rapid economic development and financial institutions strengthening support for the real economy,new features have emerged,mainly reflecting the rapid development of online loans,the gradual increase in the proportion of personal commercial loans,and the increasingly rich product system.However,it is affected by uncertain factors such as the "epidemic" and economic downturn,Some industries have seen systematic customer overdue or non-performing loans,leading to increased risks.Therefore,the increasingly complex personal credit business poses greater challenges to the risk warning and prevention and control of commercial banks.Based on this,this article selects L Commercial Bank’s individual human credit business risk as the research object,and organizes the data of individual loan customers from January 2018 to September 2022,obtaining 52746 valid samples to analyze the potential risks of individual human credit business and propose corresponding countermeasures.Firstly,based on the characteristics of personal credit business in the new era and environment,a personal credit risk factor indicator system is constructed using principal component analysis.Then,a credit risk evaluation model is constructed based on the comparative analysis of logistic model,decision tree model,and KNN model.By adjusting and optimizing relevant parameters,the accuracy of the early warning model is improved,the efficiency of risk early warning is enhanced,and corresponding risk strategies and response measures are studied and developed.This study is divided into five parts for elaboration.Firstly,the first part elaborates on the background and significance of studying personal credit risk control in commercial banks.The second part elaborates on the relevant concepts,theories,and basic methods of credit risk evaluation of modern commercial banks’ credit business risks.The third part elaborates on the changes in the quality of personal operational loan assets and proposes the problems that the bank faces in preventing and controlling personal loan risks.The fourth part focuses on the risk control factors of L commercial bank’s personal operational loans.The principal component analysis method is used to construct an indicator system,and the logistic model,decision tree model,and KNN model are used for comparative analysis.The results show that the KNN model has the best classification effect,and finally,an L commercial bank personal credit warning model is established.The fifth part combines the above risk factor analysis and empirical analysis results to organize risk control strategies.Firstly,establish a unified risk warning and response guarantee measure;Secondly,improve and optimize the risk warning mechanism;Thirdly,improve the loan investigation and review mechanism and the responsibilities of supervisory departments;The fourth is to strengthen risk management assessment and business training for credit personnel.