Research On The Impact Of Infrastructural Connectivity Level Of Belt And Road Countries On Global Value Chain Participation

In 2013,China proposed international cooperation initiatives to build the "New Silk Road Economic Belt" and the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road".In the past decade,China has established close ties with neighboring countries in five areas: facility connectivity,policy communication,financial integration,people-to-people bonds,and unimpeded trade.Among them,infrastructure connectivity is a key area and forerunner of the Belt and Road Initiative.Countries related to the "Belt and Road" are distributed in Southeast Asia,Europe,South Asia,North Africa and other regions around the world,and are an indispensable part of the global production chain.In this context,studying the impact of the level of facility connectivity of "Belt and Road" countries on their participation in the division of labor in the global value chain provides data support and useful reference for China’s future cooperation and investment decision-making in the value chain field with "Belt and Road" countries.Based on the existing research results,this paper discusses the influence mechanism of facility connectivity level on the participation of GVC in "Belt and Road" countries,and explains in detail from the two aspects of trade cost reduction effect and industrial structure upgrading effect.Secondly,build an index system to evaluate the level of facility connectivity in "Belt and Road" countries,and use the entropy method to measure the level of facility connectivity.Then,the ADB-MRIO data and the UIBE GVC database derived from it were used to measure the forward participation,backward participation index and status index of the GVC of 40 countries along the "Belt and Road" from 2008 to 2019,and the characteristics and change trends of the GVC participation of countries along the route were compared and analyzed.Finally,combined with the analysis of theoretical mechanism,a fixed effect model of panel data is constructed,and the influence effect of facility connectivity level on the GVC participation in "Belt and Road" countries is empirically tested,and heterogeneity is tested according to the classification of facility connectivity level and infrastructure category,and the channel effect of industrial structure upgrading effect and trade cost reduction effect is investigated.The results are as follows.(1)The overall infrastructure connectivity level of countries along the "Belt and Road" has increased significantly,of which the level of transportation and communication facilities has risen steadily,while the level of energy facility connectivity has remained basically unchanged.Those countries that were the first to sign the Belt and Road collaboration agreement with China and open China-Europe Express generally have a high level of facility connectivity.China’s infrastructure connectivity and growth rate are above average.(2)The overall forward participation,backward participation level and status index of countries along the "Belt and Road" showed a steady growth trend,although they were in the middle and lower reaches of the global division of labor chain,the average GVC status index showed an upward trend,especially after 2013,the status index increased significantly.China’s forward and backward participation has shown a slow decline,and the GVC status index has fluctuated and risen,jumping from 2013 to 2015.(3)The level of facility connectivity in "Belt and Road" countries can significantly improve the forward participation and status index of GVC in the country,and the impact on backward participation is not clear.(4)Countries with low levels of infrastructure connectivity will not affect GVC participation if they increase their level of connectivity.Countries that are already at a high level of facility connectivity can continue to improve the level of facility connectivity to promote the status of international division of labor,but the impact on forward and backward participation is not significant.Countries with medium levels of facility connectivity that continue to improve their connectivity will benefit their forward participation and value chain division of labor.(5)The improvement of the connectivity level of information and communication and transportation infrastructure significantly promoted the forward participation of GVC and the division of labor in the value chain to climb upstream,while the impact of energy facility connectivity on GVC participation was not significant.(6)The level of facility connectivity in "Belt and Road" countries affects the participation of global value chains by reducing trade costs and optimizing industrial structure,exerting channel effects.According to the research conclusions,the following policy recommendations are given.(1)Promote infrastructure interconnection in an all-round way.First,continue to improve the hardware.Build high-quality,sustainable infrastructure.The second is to develop "Silk Road e-commerce" and smooth the nodes along the new land-sea corridor between China and Europe.The third is to improve the diversified investment and financing system.Use a variety of financial instruments,including Silk Road Fund,Special Investment Fund,Special Loan.(2)Build a high-speed ubiquitous,integrated interconnection,safe and efficient,and extensive information and communication facility system.In the field of information and communication,accelerate the large-scale deployment of 5G networks,explore application scenarios,and provide various services such as satellite communication services,Internet information services,cloud computing and big data for "Belt and Road" countries.(3)Strengthen the full-chain service and integrated connection of the transportation facility network.Promote the construction of China-Europe train assembly centers.Improve international road network and trunk road network.Actively develop waterway transportation and build a new gateway to the port.Improve availability and economy of air transport in both civil and commercial sectors.According to the Master Plan for the New Western Land-Sea Corridor,the process of international intermodal transport should be simplified.(4)Actively expand third-party market cooperation.The first is to cultivate a number of major excellent projects,so that the projects drive production capacity and equipment to "go in".The second is to build a number of overseas economic and trade cooperation zones with clear industrial positioning,advanced management level and outstanding location advantages.The third is to improve the third-party market cooperation mechanism.Through the above measures,we can better play the role of industrial structure upgrading effect and trade cost reduction effect in improving the level of GVC participation.