| Our country’s economy is developing,and RMB internationalization is speeding up unceasingly on the time.As one of the most important measurement prices in the economy system,RMB exchange rate will influence foreign trade.Different industry under the influence of exchange rate movements,agriculture as an important industry concerning people’s livelihood,import and export of agricultural products is a crucial part of our trade system,sino-australia agricultural trade deficit is rising in our trade,Australia imports has become one of the important sources to meet domestic demand.The change of RMB real exchange rate whether to affect sino-australia agricultural products trade,long-term and short-term situation whether there is any difference,different mode of agricultural products trade and products will be different influence whether or not,the RMB exchange rate will how to affect our export competitiveness.This paper analyzes these issues.Researching these issues is of guiding importance to grasp the development of agriculture and agricultural products trade.This paper divides paper into five parts to discuss the sino-australia agricultural products trade under the impact of the RMB exchange rate changes,staid reviews meaning,studies of other scholars,analyze the relevant theories and the two countries’ trade present situation,characteristics and influence factors analysis summary,on empirical test,choose the first quarter of 1999 to the fourth quarter of 2019 RMB real exchange rate,sino-australia agricultural data,join the sinoaustralian bilateral political relations,the technical barriers to trade and exchange rate risk factors,in order to study the general model of commonly used as a basis,establishing vector autoregressive and threshold model about sino-australia farm trade,this paper mainly focuses on sino-australia agricultural products trade balance and structure under the RMB exchange rate changing,also select the HS international standard classification,different categories of exports of agricultural products,as well as the export of the different modes of trade,deep study the effects of changing exchange rate.The empirical outcome tell us that RMB depreciates is beneficial to China’s export of agricultural products to Australia and the improvement of China’s trade balance,but there is a certain lag.Under the general mode of trade,The export of major agricultural products is profoundly affected by the rate of change,and processed agricultural products are most deeply affected by the main ingredient,which conforms to the elasticity theory.Then from the four perspectives of promoting RMB exchange rate reform,promoting agricultural development policy means,enterprise management philosophy and corporate behavior,this paper puts forward countermeasures to effectively promote Sino-Australian agricultural trade.This paper innovation is using the micro industry perspective focus on the analysis of the influence of exchange rate changes,choose the new quarterly data,in the import and export model which is on incomplete relatively comprehensive consideration of various factors,including political relations,exchange rate risk,trade policy,etc.,also employ the threshold model under different exchange rate if there is a difference,the influence of the trade balance,trade way,the Angle of trade products fully analyzed the influence of exchange rate movements on agricultural trade between the two countries. |
