| With the rapid development of China’s economy and the continuous improvement of people’s living standards,urban traffic congestion has become an inevitable phenomenon in major cities.Vigorously developing rail transit is an effective way to alleviate urban traffic congestion.As a public private partnership that can make government departments and social capital cooperate with each other,it has attracted extensive attention.This mode can effectively relieve the financial pressure of the government,and has gradually become one of the effective financing modes of urban rail transit.However,it should also be noted that the establishment,bidding and sustainability costs of PPP projects may be higher than those of traditional government procurement processes,and there are some problems that need to be faced up to,such as unlimited risk-taking.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the risk control of engineering projects constructed in PPP mode.This paper introduces in detail the connotation,potential advantages and disadvantages of PPP mode,the current research status at home and abroad,and the risk factors and risk assessment methods of PPP projects.Then,taking a city’s urban rail transit PPP project as an example,combined with the project background,the city’s economic development,financial resources and project investment and financing,the project established a level-1 risk and level-2 risk framework for the project,organized experts to score the risks at all levels,calculated their weights using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process,and completed the risk assessment in combination with the relationship between the score and the risk rating table,the score range and the risk rating.According to the basic theory of project management of PPP project and the risk characteristic factors of engineering project,the risk system of the project is divided into four risks: system risk,preparation stage risk,construction stage risk,handover stage risk and operation stage risk.It is subdivided into 39 sub items,such as political risk,risk of changes in laws and regulations,tax risk,exchange rate fluctuation,financial tolerance,market risk,etc.,and the effective and scientific evaluation of each risk of the project is carried out through expert scoring method and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process.Using the expert scoring method,it is concluded that the top ten risk factors of importance are "change of passenger flow","financial bearing capacity of a municipal government","fare pricing adjustment","government credit","contract completeness and change risk","survey and design risk","safety risk","change of laws and regulations","credit problems of social capital and project company","demolition and land supply".Using the fuzzy AHP risk assessment method,the weight vector is determined ω,The safety assessment grade is established to assess the risk of PPP project of Urban Rail Transit Line 1 and line 2 phase I in a city.It is concluded that the risk degree of the PPP project of Urban Rail Transit Line 1 and line 2 phase I in a city is general.At the same time,the list of top ten risks in terms of occurrence probability and importance is comprehensively compared,and all risk factors are generally ranked according to the weight value.Finally,the risk assessment index system of PPP mode of urban rail transit project in a city is established,and the weights of 5 primary indicators and 13 secondary indicators are calculated respectively.It is sorted according to the total weight proportion of specific risk factors.After establishing the score and risk rating table,the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is used to evaluate the risk of the PPP project of Urban Rail Transit Line 1 and line 2 phase I in a city.It is calculated that the risk degree of the PPP project of Urban Rail Transit Line 1 and line 2 phase I in a city is general.At the same time,the list of the top ten risks in terms of occurrence probability and importance is comprehensively compared,and according to the weight value,From the results of ranking all risk factors,it is deduced that market risk needs special attention.This paper selects the "passenger flow change" risk with the highest risk occurrence probability and risk degree score to conduct a special risk countermeasure research,analyzes the causes of the "passenger flow change" risk,determines two special countermeasures: a reasonable return mechanism and a reasonable ticket price adjustment scheme,fits the change trend of a city’s CPI value according to the logest function in Excel,and calculates the ticket price adjustment table in the next visible years.PPP mode can play an important role in large-scale urban rail transit construction projects,and will be paid more and more attention and applied in the future.Looking at the global economy and society,it shows a tired posture,and the government financial resources are becoming more and more stretched;Moreover,the stock of money in China is quite large.Therefore,it is undoubtedly of great practical significance to conduct in-depth and systematic analysis and Discussion on the PPP model,especially on the risk sharing of the PPP model. |
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