Study On Credit Risk Control Of Offshore RMB Bond Market

In the practice of international trade,it is very important for enterprises to use local currency for external settlement in terms of saving transaction costs and avoiding exchange rate risks.In 2008,the US subprime mortgage crisis broke out.As the world’s largest currency,the US dollar transmitted the crisis to the whole world through a large amount of money printing.Aware of the risk caused by excessive reliance on US dollar at that time,our country began to promote the internationalization of RMB in 2009.The supporting offshore RMB market has also entered a rapid development stage.There are various kinds of offshore RMB products,especially the development of offshore RMB bond market.The steady expansion of the offshore RMB bond market and the increasingly diversified types of participants have greatly improved the efficiency of RMB circulation abroad.However,with the rapid development of the offshore RMB bond market,the credit risk problem faced by the market is intensifying,and the corresponding control plan is in urgent need.Based on the above considerations,this thesis studies the credit risk of offshore RMB bond market.First of all,through the detailed analysis and elaboration of the background and significance of the research,and then determine the research idea,research content and structure.Then,by combing and analyzing the research progress of offshore RMB bond market and risk control at home and abroad,the academic views of relevant scholars are refined,and the shortcomings of current research are pointed out,which lays the theoretical foundation for the study of this thesis.Then through the analysis of the current development status and characteristics of the offshore RMB bond market in Hong Kong,it points out the existing problems in the credit risk management of the market.Through the case analysis method,the credit risk management situation of the offshore bond market in US dollar and Japanese yen is selected for analysis,which provides foreign experience for reference and ideas for the credit risk management of the RMB offshore bond market in this thesis.Then,the issuer in the offshore RMB bond market in Hong Kong is selected to calculate its default distance through the KMV model.The key variable affecting the model effectequity value volatility is corrected through the GARCH model.The corrected data no longer has the ARCH effect after testing.It can accurately reflect the changes in the credit risk level of issuers in the offshore RMB bond market in Hong Kong.Finally,on the basis of the above studies,the countermeasures to improve the credit risk management of the offshore RMB bond market are put forward.Combined with the overall situation of the Chinese bond market,the countermeasures include strengthening information disclosure,improving the management level of regulators,improving the credit risk measurement system of the offshore RMB bond market,and establishing and perfecting the credit rating system.Policy suggestions are put forward in five aspects:strengthening the professional ability of rating agencies,accelerating the construction of offshore RMB market and playing the synergistic role of offshore onshore market.