Study On Influencing Factors Of Grain Yield In Zhoushan City

Agriculture is the foundation of national economy.One of the effective ways to solve our grain economy problem is to study grain output.To comprehensively understand the grain production situation of Zhoushan City,analyze the main factors affecting the grain production of Zhoushan City,and explore the effective way to maintain the stable and sustainable growth of grain in Zhoushan City,can make contributions to the national grain stability.Based on the grain production data of Zhoushan City,this thesis studies the grain output and its main influencing factors as follows:Firstly,the development of grain output in Zhoushan City since liberation 70 years ago was reviewed.The overall grain output showed a downward trend,with low yield per unit area and single grain crop varieties.The effects of three factors on grain output were analyzed in detail.Secondly,the Corgis production function model is constructed based on labor and capital input data.According to the total grain output of Zhoushan City from 1995 to 2020,nine factors were determined as evaluation indexes,including the sown area of grain crops,the effective irrigation area,the amount of chemical fertilizer,the amount of pesticide,the power of farming machinery,the rural labor force,the average annual temperature,the annual precipitation,and the annual sunshine duration,and a step-by-step linear regression model was established.The determination coefficient of stepwise regression model reached 0.997.The results showed that sowing area and tillage machinery power had significant positive effects on yield,and because of the correlation between these two factors,a multiple linear regression model based on principal component analysis was further constructed.Thirdly,based on the original time series data of grain total output from 1958 to 2020,the ARIMA model was established with high prediction accuracy.The grain output in recent five years was predicted by the model,and the fitting error of the prediction model was less than 0.1.The model was used to forecast the grain output in Zhoushan City in the next five years.Finally,combining the empirical analysis results of numerical factors and other non-numerical influencing factors,suggestions on the supply side reform such as the protection of cultivated land resources,agricultural science and technology innovation and promotion were put forward.This study has certain reference value for promoting grain output growth,fully tapping the grain production potential of Zhoushan City,stabilizing agricultural production and agricultural supply-side reform.